ASA’s Monthly Sales Report: May Sales Remain Positive Despite Signs of Economic Moderation

By primary business emphasis the industrial PVF distributors said May sales 22.2% year-over-year (y/y). Year-to-date (YTD) sales +5.7% and trailing twelve months (TTM) sales +11.8%.

All respondents overall reported a Median May sales increased +2.7% year-over-year and -5.9% compared with April 2026. YTD sales +5.1%; TTM sales +7.3%. Inventory: +5.3% versus May 2025. Cash cycle: Median three-month average Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) remained steady at nearly 42 days.

Economic Indicators:
Recent economic data suggest the U.S. economy remained resilient entering the second quarter, though momentum appears more uneven than earlier estimates suggested. Real GDP expanded at a 1.6% annualized rate in the first quarter, revised down from the initial 2.0% estimate but still improved from the much softer 0.5% increase in the fourth quarter of 2025.

The labor market has remained steady, with unemployment holding near 4.3% and initial unemployment claims continuing to trend at historically moderate levels. At the same time, inflation pressures have reaccelerated as higher energy prices tied to Middle East disruptions flowed through gasoline, freight, and broader input costs. While recent diplomatic efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz may ease some supply chain concerns, shipping and energy markets remain vulnerable to lingering disruptions.

Manufacturing activity has generally remained constructive, with business investment and capital goods orders showing renewed strength, while wholesale sales continue to grow despite signs that a portion of that growth is being driven by higher prices rather than volume gains. Conversely, housing remains a notable area of weakness, as housing starts declined sharply in May and elevated borrowing costs continue to constrain residential construction activity.

While the yield curve remains in positive territory, rising long-term Treasury yields continue to reflect concerns around persistent inflation and elevated borrowing costs, suggesting that housing and other interest-rate-sensitive sectors are likely to remain under pressure in the months ahead.

What ASA members are saying:

“Booked orders in the last 3 months are at the highest level in our history!!!”

“May was a "solid" month when adjusting for the impact of one less selling day year over year. Growing a bit concerned about the backlog for the 2nd half of the year due to higher rates, prices, etc.”

“May was another strong month.”

“Sales are still solid, despite what the news media is reporting.”

“We saw a significant slow down in May compared to the first 4 months of 2026. We have seen projects put on hold and show lower profits due to higher fuel costs and freight in increases. Quoting and orders are slowly picking up for June but we are concerned this slow down will last longer than originally expected.”