Election 2026: An Epic Political Shakeup

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As the dust settles and races are called less than 24 hours after the 2026 Election has concluded, there is only one word to describe it.  Epic.

Having won control of the White House and both chambers of Congress just two years ago, Republicans were swept from legislative power on Tuesday night in a way that really went beyond most projections, especially in the Senate. Democrats gained Senate seats in North Carolina and Georgia, where Republican losses had been anticipated, as well as in Texas, Kansas, and South Carolina, where Democratic victories had been considered far less likely. As of this writing, there are two races in the upper chamber yet to be called. Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith is trailing her Democratic opponent, Scott Colum, by 65 votes in Mississippi. In Alaska, Sen. Dan S. Sullivan is trailing his Democratic opponent, former Rep. Mary Peltola, by 626 votes, with 44% in. The “other” Dan Sullivan currently has 3,583 votes and appears to be making a difference in this race.  As Alaska currently employs ranked choice voting, it could take weeks to decide on final vote count. 

What made these Senate results so monumental were where Democrats won. Starting in Maine, where moderate GOP Sen. Susan Collins had fended off Democratic challengers for almost 25 years, she was defeated last night by Troy Jackson, in what had been one of the most unusual Senate races in recent memory.  In South Carolina, where appointed Sen. Darline Graham was attempting to keep the seat of her late brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham, she fell to Democrat Annie Andrews. In Texas, where a Democrat had not been elected to the Senate since Lloyd Bentsen in 1988, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton was defeated by Democratic State Representative James Talarico.  And, in Kansas, the state that hasn’t sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1932, Republican Sen. Roger Marshall lost to Democrat Adam Hamilton. 

In the House, Republicans lost in swing districts, as well as districts that were considered safe, including those districts that had been redrawn since the 2024 election. Moderate Republicans like Reps. Mike Lawler (NY) and Brian Fitzpatrick (PA) who appeared masterful in their ability to hold districts in the Hudson Valley and suburban Philadelphia, respectively, saw their success end. The Chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, Richard Hudson (NC), was defeated by 2.1% in his R+8 district that he won by 19 points in 2024.  This is the first time in American history that an NRCC Chair has lost. In Colorado, all three Republicans, Reps. Jeff Hurd, Lauren Boebert, and Jeff Crank have yet to have their races called, with the latter two currently trailing. 

What does this all mean? From a political standpoint, it’s earthshattering. In the Senate, Democrats appear to have gone from a 53-47 Republican controlled chamber, to flipping at least seven seats and taking a 54-44 majority, while waiting for the results from Mississippi and Alaska. In the House, Republicans had a scant 220-215 majority, with Democrats flipping at least 35 seats. Keep in mind that the electorate of 2024 is not the same as the electorate in 2026. Midterm elections typically draw fewer voters than presidential elections, and differences in turnout can affect results. Comparisons between the two should account for changes in both the size and composition of the electorate.

Voter concerns this cycle included gas and food prices, international conflict, and data centers. Some voters who supported the Trump Administration in 2024 had expected progress on issues that had also persisted during the Biden Administration. Exit polling suggested that dissatisfaction with the administration’s response deeply influenced their vote. Republican candidates’ experience, campaign organization, and records also drew scrutiny. Former RNC Chair Michael Whatley was slow to launch his campaign against former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper in North Carolina. Sen. Darlene Graham, who had no prior political experience when appointed to her late brother’s seat, narrowly won the Republican nomination in South Carolina and faced criticism over campaign remarks. In 2023, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton was impeached by the Republican-majority Texas House and avoided removal from office by a three-vote margin in the Republican-controlled Texas Senate. Georgia Rep. Mike Collins was running for the Senate while under a House Ethics Committee investigation.

Despite a substantial fundraising advantage, Republican candidates faced challenges in addressing voters’ concerns about rising prices. Their emphasis on positive economic conditions contrasted with the financial pressures many voters described. In races against Democratic Socialist candidates, some Republicans focused on ideological differences, including warnings about communism. Their opponents emphasized household affordability and argued that corporate practices contributed to higher costs. The results suggest that messages focused on everyday financial concerns resonated with voters, though messaging alone does not fully explain the outcome.

In Congress, this will cause not only a political change, but a massive policy shift as well.  In addition to oversight investigations and potential impeachment proceedings, Democrats will likely bring the policy focus back to where it was under the Biden Administration.  For example, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) will likely return as the Chair of the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, with a deep focus on Medicare for All and labor issues. He said last week, “If I have anything to say about it … the agenda of the Democratic Party is going to be extremely bold.”

Our industry, like others, will have its work cut out for it. The lame duck session will prove critical as Republicans try to move their last remaining priorities through before the new Congress is seated in December. This could include the defense authorization bill, a budget or continuing resolution, a reconciliation bill, numerous administration confirmations, and the ASA-supported bipartisan permitting reform bill. In Washington, people learn to live with the swing of the political pendulum, and will adjust to the new path ahead. 

By Steve Rossi