ASA’s February Economic Report: A Challenging Transition Period for the Economy

From the February 2025 ASA Monthly Economic Report: The latest data from the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow system is not painting a very optimistic picture. A few weeks ago, the estimate was a respectable 2.3% growth for the year but now it sits at 1.5% and that is a pretty steep decline in a short period. The assertion is that three things are driving the rate down – lack of consumer confidence, impact of the tariffs and adjustments in the market as growth slows down.

The monthly ASA Economic Report is produced by Armada Corporate Intelligence, ASA’s business intelligence partner, and is available as a free member benefit for ASA members through the MyASA portal at www.asa.net/myasa.
 

Armada wrote that the tariff wars have to constitute the most serious threats as they remain uncertain and unpredictable. The next wave of concern revolves around the reaction from other nations as they hit the US with their own set of tariffs and restrictions. The US has leverage in some areas but not in all.

Along those lines, the global supply chain is now more influenced by the tariff wars than by the issues in the Red Sea or the Panama Canal. Trade relations are very strained, and these disputes will affect shipping dramatically. Especially the migration away from China as a key source.

Additionally, Armada gave some insight on the key issues when it comes to the following: expectation for inflation, why the workforce crisis shows no sign of improvement, tariffs and trade, regulation and lastly, taxation.

The report also answers a reader’s question of the month: What is the Negotiation Target for Tariffs?

Again, ASA members can access the Monthly Economic Report through the MyASA portal at www.asa.net/myasa.