ASA’s November Economic Report: Transitions: Seasons, Cycles, And Administrations, Change Is in the Air

From November 2024 ASA Monthly Economic Report: Q4 GDP was trending at 3.2% early in December, well ahead of analyst expectations for 1.9% growth and ahead of last year’s 2.5% growth rate. The big changes are better than expected consumer spending volumes (growing at 3.4%) and better total private investment (1.2% growth). Coupled with good construction volumes, government spending, and some front-loading of inventories, and 3.2% growth is unexpected but sustainable (since it is not being generated solely on single-stimulus events).

The monthly ASA Economic Report is produced by Armada Corporate Intelligence, ASA’s business intelligence partner, and is available as a free member benefit for ASA members through the MyASA portal at www.asa.net/myasa.
 

Armada wrote that at the time of writing, that there is a tariff Risk. This is the main concern coming out of the election as blanket tariffs have been mentioned many times. Most of these will be negotiating tactics, but some are likely to hit in 2025. Also building is the Port Strike: At the time of writing, the East Coast Port situation was still not settled. The tentative agreement to end the strike in October will hit a deadline on January 15th, and both parties are reportedly far apart on automation and robotics issues.

Additionally, Armada gave some insight into what actually changes with the election. With the election over and the outcome certain, all of us are now planning for the road ahead and what it could mean for the operating environment. There are items that the incoming administration can do in short order to change the operating environment and factors that it cannot control (factors driven more by economic conditions and competition).

The report also answers a reader’s question of the month: Is There a Chance for Another Port Strike in January?

Again, ASA members can access the Monthly Economic Report through the MyASA portal at www.asa.net/myasa.