Washington Weekly - May 25

This Week:

The House is in session and the Senate is in recess.     

Federal:

The X-Factor:  After a lot of back and forth over the last week on the debt ceiling, Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) met with President Biden at the White House on Monday night, but as of this writing, there is still no deal to be had.  On Tuesday morning, Republican caucus members were told that a deal is far off, and they would have 72 hours to review any agreement.  This means that not only legislators, but the public will know when a deal is agreed to.  The so-called “X-Date,” or the day that the point at which the federal government would not be able to pay its bills is quickly approaching.  Is this accurate?  Sort of.  Congress is (deliberately) a slow-moving body.  Sometimes deadlines are imposed on it to help speed the process.  In this case, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellin has made June 1 the “X-Date,” although, it is widely thought that the government can continue to move forward on debt payments and financial Armageddon will not be at hand, but this does not underestimate the power of a potential default.  In the meantime, negotiations are ongoing, President Biden and Speaker McCarthy (and their negotiators) are in touch and trying to keep their respective allies together while compromises are proposed.  Most of the House budget markups have been suspended to allow the Speaker’s team maximum flexibility.  However, the Military Construction (Mil Con)-Veterans Affairs bill was passed out of committee to show Republican commitment to those areas of the federal budget.

The Sticking Points: House Republicans will likely not support a debt limit increase without two main concessions from Democrats.  First, any increase must be coupled with spending cuts.  The starting point for Republicans is resetting spending to FY2022 levels with 1% increases annually. Second, Republicans want to see work requirements for several federal assistance programs, many of which were abandoned during COVID.  In addition, the GOP Caucus is largely opposed to a short-term debt limit increase, preferring to settle this now, which presents a challenge for the Speaker.  The President needs to allay fears from Congressional Democrats that spending priorities will be protected. Both sides have their work cut out for them.

Politics:

More Choices:  On Monday, Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) announced his candidacy for President.  It had been widely expected that he would run and a TV buy in Iowa made it official by exceeding the $5,000 expenditure limit.  Sen. Scott enters the race with a national base of support and more money in his federal account than any other announced Republican candidate for President.  This week, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) is expected to make it official and announce he is entering the race as well.  Delaware: Longtime Sen. Tom Carper (D-DE) announced that he would retire at the end of his current term.  First elected to Congress in 1982, he served ten years before engineering a ‘switch’ with then-Republican Gov. Mike Castle where each ran for each other’s seats (both won).  He won his current office in 2000, defeating incumbent Republican Sen. Bill Roth.  Delaware’s lone member of Congress, Democratic Rep. Blunt Rochester, is widely expected to succeed him. Fundraising: In April, the DCCC reported raising $9.1 million and the NRCC raised $5.6 million.  Last week, the NRCC was able to come back a bit as House Republicans raised $12.4 million at a dinner in Tampa. 

President Biden Job Approval (RCP Average): 42% Approve – 53% Disapprove. The House currently has a composition of 222 Republicans to 213 Democrats. The Senate is comprised of 51 Democrats and 49 Republicans. Rep. David Cicilline (D-RI) will retire from the House on June 1 (RI-1 Primary: 9/5/2023; General 11/7/2023).