2025 Economic Shockwaves: Key Global Shifts and What’s Ahead

With ASA Chief Economist Dr. Chris Kuehl out this week, the latest Keeping It Real with Dr. Kuehl podcast returns with a special episode hosted by Keith Prather, Managing Director at Armada. In Season 5, Episode 13 (5:59), Prather breaks down three pivotal economic shifts anticipated in 2025 and explores the surprise shock wave that disrupted markets in Q1.
 

According to Prather, reciprocal tariffs announced on April 2nd triggered economic ripples stemming from trade tensions and supply chain bottlenecks—shocks that partially spilled into April’s activity. As global orders in China slow, U.S. manufacturers are simultaneously seeing strong performance, leading to a mixed but intriguing outlook.
 

Prather also dives into the potential for significant mid-year announcements, including a possible new U.S. tax bill and the hope for a permanent ceasefire involving Ukraine and Iran—two developments that could catalyze growth and investor confidence. While the global manufacturing sector has outperformed expectations, weak data in select areas points to ongoing volatility. ASA members should keep a close eye on inventory trends—particularly a possible inversion—and consider how robust retail sales, positive jobs data, and wage growth might influence the consumer environment.
 

Stay tuned for what May could bring and whether current headlines are overstating market risks. ASA members with questions for Dr. Kuehl can email Bri Baresel at bbaresel@asa.net to have them featured in an upcoming episode.
 

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