ASA Distributor Members Report Steady Growth in January Sales Despite Economic Concerns

The Industrial PVF firms reported a nearly 2% increase in year-over-year sales for January, with their Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) sales showing a modest rise of almost 1%. In contrast, PHCP firms saw a 3% growth for January, although their TTM sales were down by nearly 3%. When combining both PHCP and PVF firms, there was a total sales increase of 4% for January, while TTM sales rose by almost 3%.

Overall, all respondents reported a median sales increase of 3% for January 2025 compared to the same month in 2024. However, on a month-to-month basis, January sales experienced a slight decline of -0.2% compared to December. Despite this, TTM sales through January 31, 2025, showed a positive growth of 1%.

Inventory levels saw a 4% increase for January 2025 compared to January 2024. Additionally, the median Three-Months Average Days Sales Outstanding edged up to 41 days for January, signaling a small shift in the time taken to complete sales.

Economic Indicators:
The advanced "Real" GDP growth figure for the 4th quarter of 2024 was 2.3%. Total wholesale sales for December increased 2.8% year-over-year, while contracted -0.1% vs. the prior year. The growth in "Real" wholesale sales was only 1.7%--indicating a second consecutive month of an uptick in inflation.

Housing starts reported a significant increase in December only to pull back in January to a level more in line with what we saw for much of 2024. After a sharp increase in November, housing permits have remained fairly consistent in the last couple of months. The unemployment rate for January dropped to 4.0%.

What ASA members are saying:

“Business is very strong for the first month of the year. February is off to a strong start and the amount of work to bid for future months is stronger than I have seen in years. I am hopeful for a strong 2025 but also worried about what the fallout from current government actions may be.”

“Commercial projects are having a strong start to the new year. We look for that to continue during 2025.”

“Despite a number of days with harsh winter weather, sales activity was fairly consistent throughout the month and allowed for a good start to the fiscal year.”

“January was stronger than expected, buoyed by the extreme temperatures vs. a moderate winter last year. The pipeline looks strong, but we are a bit concerned that tariff noise and proposed price increases may put a dent in demand.

“Overall business is good but concerns about looming tariffs is making confidence in the market a bit shaky.”

“Slow start to the New Year, hoping things will improve.”

“We saw further deflation in Jan '25, hoping to see prices begin to stabilize, especially those related to commodities.”