ASA’s April Economic Report: A Lot of Noise, Scary Headlines, But Resilient Marketplace Continues

From April’s ASA Monthly Economic Report: Q2 GDP is trending at 3.7% using the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates, which is well ahead of expectations. This will adjust downward as the quarter progresses and new releases hit the forecast. Blue Chip Economists are still banking on 1.5% for the quarter, being driven by consumer spending, non-residential investment, and a tailwind from stronger tax refunds. But interest rates on longer-term borrowing have moved upward since the War in the Middle East started, and that continues to impact residential housing and has some construction projects delayed.

The monthly ASA Economic Report is produced by Armada Corporate Intelligence, ASA’s business intelligence partner, and is available as a free member benefit for ASA members through the MyASA portal at www.asa.net/myasa.
 

Armada also wrote that the ongoing semi-closure of the Strait of Hormuz is going on nearly 90 days and the impacts to global supply chains are starting to be felt. Global oil markets are elevated and supplies in some markets are tighter. That is placing more pressure on any heavy energy-consuming producer, and some are being forced to trim capacity. That will eventually lead to product stockouts or shortages if it continues.

What to Watch: Tariff changes remain a key near-term risk, with July 24th approaching quickly as Section 122 tariffs are set to be replaced by Section 301 measures. As the public comment period winds down, purchasing managers are hoping for greater clarity on what tariff rates to expect, whether Section 301 duties will stack with other costs, and additional details needed to support longer-term purchasing decisions

The report also answers a reader’s question of the month: How Long Before Oil Prices Start to Fall?

Again, ASA members can access the Monthly Economic Report through the MyASA portal at www.asa.net/myasa.