ASA’s January Economic Report: The Data Says “Slowdown”… or Does It?

From January 2026 ASA Monthly Economic Report: Q4 estimates have come down a bit from what they were a few weeks ago, but the data is still pointing towards a very high level of 4.2% according to the Fed’s GDPNow study. It had been as high as 5.4% but few expected that range to stick. The 4.2% growth is still exceptional and added to a whole series of above expected rates. The drivers are as they have been all year – consumer spending and construction (especially non-residential). There was also contribution from manufacturing.

The monthly ASA Economic Report is produced by Armada Corporate Intelligence, ASA’s business intelligence partner, and is available as a free member benefit for ASA members through the MyASA portal at www.asa.net/myasa.
 

Armada also wrote that some big risks to look out for is employment. The latest data on jobs has been concerning. There have been few jobs created and layoffs are accelerating fast. The culprits are varied – everything from the advance of AI to the post-holiday slump in consumer activity. There are sectors of the economy that desperately need trained workers, but other sectors are shedding people as technology advances. Those companies most sensitive to exports and imports are starting to feel a real slowdown.

What to Watch according to this months report? The majority of the tariff activity is now clearly political and therefore harder to predict. They are referred to as TACO tariffs (Trump Always Chickens Out). It is not so much “chickening out” as Trump getting what he wants in the negotiating process and then setting the tariff aside.

The report also answers a reader’s question of the month: Will a New Fed Chair Change the Chances of an Interest Rate Cut?

Again, ASA members can access the Monthly Economic Report through the MyASA portal at www.asa.net/myasa.