ASA’s March Economic Report: Tariffs, Tariffs, Tariffs - And the Rest of the Economy

From the March 2025 ASA Monthly Economic Report: Q1 GDP numbers are looking weak, with GDPNow data plunging from 2.3% to -4.7% due to a surge in imports, particularly gold. Imports negatively impact GDP, and businesses have been stockpiling ahead of potential tariffs. A “gold-adjusted” version of the data shows a smaller decline to -1.4%, suggesting that unusual factors are distorting the numbers.

The monthly ASA Economic Report is produced by Armada Corporate Intelligence, ASA’s business intelligence partner, and is available as a free member benefit for ASA members through the MyASA portal at www.asa.net/myasa.
 

Armada also wrote that the tariffs are still a problem. The broken record is still broken. The real problem is that nobody really knows what the policy is. Will these tariffs stay in place, or will they be negotiated away? Until there is some degree of certainty the global business community is on pause. Staying in limbo too long invites a recession. Even April 2nd announcements still bring many questions.

Along those lines, the global supply chain has now been upset by trade wars as opposed to

the issues of the last few years. There is some movement in the Red Sea again (but is still closed) and the Panama Canal is no problem right now. It all seems to come down to sourcing.

Additionally, Armada gave some insight on what the logic is to these tariff policies and three barriers to these policies approaches.

The report also answers a reader’s question of the month: Will this trade “conversation” ever cease?

Again, ASA members can access the Monthly Economic Report through the MyASA portal at www.asa.net/myasa.