ASA’s October Economic Report: Shutdown Delays Data, but Consumer Strength and Investment Persist

From October 2025 ASA Monthly Economic Report: The government shutdown has delayed most Federal economic data. Q3 GDP trended at 4% based on the latest available data, but much of the visibility needed is still delayed. Most estimates suggest that the government shutdown, because of its duration, may have brought Q3 GDP down to 1.5%. This is still reasonable given the circumstances. The good news is that consumer spending is still resilient, and nonresidential investment is still robust. Residential activity was still dragging, and government spending was just 3% of growth.

The monthly ASA Economic Report is produced by Armada Corporate Intelligence, ASA’s business intelligence partner, and is available as a free member benefit for ASA members through the MyASA portal at www.asa.net/myasa.
 

Armada also wrote that based on the latest data available, there is still a prediction for weak oil prices in 2026. Despite those forecasts inching up slightly in October, it will take an increase in global consumption or a significant cut in production to keep prices elevated in the $60-$70 range (which would be optimum for investment and spending).

What to Watch according to this months report? Government Reopening – With the government slowly reopening, a new wave of data will help improve visibility into the 2026 outlook, which we will focus on heavily next month. At the time of writing, the shutdown was still affecting data availability across most sources.

The report also answers a reader’s question of the month: I’m Hearing that the US May be Overbuilding AI Data Centers. Is This True?

Again, ASA members can access the Monthly Economic Report through the MyASA portal at www.asa.net/myasa.