Tariffs and Redistricting Take Center Stage as Congress Recesses

Now that Congress is out of session until after Labor Day, Washington’s focus has shifted to tariff disputes and looming redistricting fights in Texas and beyond.
 

Tariffs: August 7 has been the long-standing deadline for tariff implementation for several countries. While trade deal frameworks have been achieved with major trading partners like the EU, Japan, and South Korea, Canada and Mexico still have not reached an agreement with the United States—although the latter received a reprieve last week after a call between President Trump and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum. On the other end of the tariff spectrum, Switzerland awoke to celebrate its national holiday on August 1, only to find it had just been assessed a 39% tariff rate. Negotiations remain far from over for certain countries.
 

Last week, President Trump signed two Executive Orders related to tariffs. The first addresses IEEPA reciprocal tariffs ([fact sheet here]), and the second concerns the IEEPA tariff on Canada regarding fentanyl ([fact sheet here]). Any products that Customs and Border Protection (CBP) deems to have been transshipped through a third country are subject to an immediate 40% tariff. In addition to the steel and aluminum import tariffs already in place, CBP has released new guidance on copper imports, which can be found [here].
 

Redistricting: Most Texas Democrats have decamped to reliably blue states like Illinois and New York for refuge, as the state’s GOP now holds 25 of its 38 U.S. House seats. In 2024, President Trump carried 27 of those districts—and under the proposed redistricting plan, he would have won 30. That shift could allow Speaker Mike Johnson to add up to five more seats to his razor-thin 219–212 majority.
 

Key targets include the districts of Reps. Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez (both of whom saw Trump victories in their districts in 2024), as well as a forced face-off between Reps. Greg Casar and Lloyd Doggett in Austin. Julie Johnson’s Dallas seat would be reconfigured to lean Republican, and Reps. Mark Veasey and Jasmine Crockett would likely clash in a primary. The new map also increases the number of majority-Black, majority-White, and majority-Latino districts.
 

Blue-state governors have warned they’ll strike back as the redistricting fight heats up. Most states only allow map changes during the post-census window, but six—Florida, Maryland, Missouri, Ohio, Oregon, and Texas—can redraw lines at any time. Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker, eyeing a possible 2028 presidential run, says he’s exploring his own remap, though state law bars redistricting without a court order or for special elections. Under Illinois’s current map, it sends 14 Democrats and only three Republicans to Washington, despite Trump winning 44 percent of the vote in 2024. Any remap could put incumbent Democrats in jeopardy.
 

California Governor Gavin Newsom has floated a similar plan (also potentially seeking a presidential nomination), but he’d have to secure a court order or call a special session to override the independent commission voters created in 2010—a high-risk move if it fails. Meanwhile, Missouri and Ohio are already sketching new boundaries that could hand Republicans an extra three to four seats between them.
 

With legal skirmishes already underway and governors on both sides digging in, the fight over who controls congressional maps has become the opening salvo of the 2026 election. Both parties recognize that redistricting now shapes the balance of power for the next decade.