ASA Advocacy Election Update

America saw a historic political result on Tuesday night, with Donald Trump returning to the White House and Republicans taking control of the Senate. While it remains to be seen (this is being written on Wednesday morning) how large the Republican majority will be in the Senate after flipping seats in Ohio and Montana, the House is still waiting out its results as well. The House GOP saw losses in New York State with Reps. Mark Molinaro, Anthony D’Esposito, and Brendan Williams losing their seats, but GOP Rep. Mike Lawler had an emphatic victory over former Rep. Mondaire Jones to win another two years in Congress. In Pennsylvania, Republican Rob Bresnahan defeated Rep. Matt Cartwright to win PA-8 and claim this Northeastern Pennsylvania district that is centered on President Biden’s hometown of Scranton. As of this writing, Rep. Scott Perry is maintaining a slim, 1.2% lead in PA-10 and Democratic Rep. Susan Wild has conceded her race in Pennsylvania.
 

ASA PAC endorsed candidates are looking strong, as of this writing. In the Senate, all ASA PAC-endorsed candidates up for reelection appear to have won, apart from Former Gov. Larry Hogan in Maryland. Key Senate pickups including Sens.-Elect Bernie Moreno (R-OH) and Tim Sheehy (R-MT) happened with the help and support of ASA PAC.  Other ASA victories include Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-NE) winning his special election to finish out the last two years of retired Sen. Ben Sasse’s term, Sen. John Barrasso (R-WY) who will be the Senate Majority Whip in the next Congress, Sen.-Elect Jim Banks (R-IN), Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN), as well as Gov. and now Sen.-Elect Jim Justice (R-WV) who provided the GOP with their 50^th seat on Election Day. On the House side, all ASA PAC supported candidates have won or are leading, except for former Rep. Yvette Herrell in New Mexico’s 2^nd District. ASA PAC supported Rep. Don Bacon continues to lead in his bellwether NE-2 district that split its vote going for Vice President Harris 51-48, and 51-48 for Rep. Bacon, with 95% of the votes in. 
 

California notoriously takes a long time to tabulate its votes.  At this writing, ASA PAC-supported Rep. Mike Thompson (D) appears to have easily won reelection in his Northern California district that includes all of Napa County, leading 66-34 with 49% in. Other ASA PAC-supported candidates in California, including Reps. David Valadao (up 55-45, with 52% in), Mike Garcia (leading 51-49, 65% in), and Michelle Steel (up 53-48, with 63% in) continue to perform well. 
 

What does this mean in the House? While a lot of votes are left to be counted, it appears that Republicans have scored a national trifecta (White House, Senate, House of Representatives). Speaker Mike Johnson may have just held on to his majority in the House, but a 218-217 majority would not be out of the conversation at this point.
 

The question remains as to how large the GOP Senate majority will be with several Republican senate candidates still awaiting results – former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers trails Rep. Elissa Slotkin by just over 6,600 votes statewide (97% reporting) in Michigan, Sam Brown is leading Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen in Nevada by 1,200 votes (88% in), Republican Dave McCormick leads Democratic Sen. Bob Casey by 50,000 votes (96% in) in Pennsylvania, and Republican Eric Hovde trails Sen. Tammy Baldwin by just over 27,000 statewide (99% reporting) in Wisconsin. This could lead to a 54-46 Republican majority as things stand at this moment. 
 

These results generally bode well for extending the 2017 Trump tax cut legislation, the elimination and/or reduction of overly burdensome regulations, as well as lower energy costs – but much remains to be written in the weeks ahead.  Stay tuned!