ASA Washington Weekly – April 3, 2024

Congress:

Update on Motion to Vacate: After Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) filed a motion to vacate just before the House was gaveled into a two-week recess, she is still moving forward with her motion, although she has stated publicly that she has not discussed the action with Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) since doing so. When Congress returns on April 9^th, there will be some potential pitfalls regarding this motion. First, Speaker Johnson has indicated that he will move a Ukraine aid bill when the House returns. Some conservative Republicans are opposed to such a measure, wanting to focus on deficit reduction and the southern border. Democrats have signaled that they will oppose any Ukraine aid bill that also includes border funding – rock, meet hard place. When the Ukraine aid bill hits the floor, this should all but trigger Rep. Taylor Green’s motion. Second, with the announcement that Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI) plans to resign his seat in April, this creates a scenario where Speaker Johnson can only lose one Republican vote to avoid removal, unless Democrats decide to come to his aid. 

More on Gallagher: With the early retirement decision by Rep. Gallagher, some of his colleagues have come to realize how his resignation will have a detrimental impact on the House Republican Caucus. Rep. Gallagher had announced that he will leave Congress by April 19^th. The issue is that under Wisconsin law, this will leave his seat vacant until the next election, something the House GOP can ill afford. Not only does it leave his district without representation in Congress for the remainder of 2024, but it also leaves Speaker Johnson with one less Republican vote. As a result, some GOP members in the House have asked that he reconsider his early retirement decision.  Stay tuned.

Politics:

Fundraising: After the RNC reported sitting on just $11 million in Q4 2023, it raised nearly $66 million in March alone and is now reporting just over $93 million cash on hand. This largely reflects the Trump campaign taking over fundraising operations of the national party, as well as replacing its leadership in March. In contrast, the DNC raised $53 million in February and ended the month with $155 million on hand. President Biden held a fundraiser in New York City last week that featured former Presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, which reportedly raised $25 million in one night.

Retirements: The Congressional retirements continue. The following legislators are retiring from public service:

House - Republicans:  Reps. Debbie Lesko (AZ-8), Ken Buck (CO-4), Doug Lamborn (CO-5), Drew Ferguson (GA-3), Greg Pence (IN-6), Larry Bucshon (IN-8), Blaine Luetkemeyer (MO-3), Patrick McHenry (NC-10), George Santos (NY-3), Bill Johnson (OH-6), Michael Burgess (TX-26), Jeff Duncan (SC-3), Brad Wenstrup (OH-2), Kay Granger (TX-12), Cathy McMorris Rodgers (WA-5) and Mike Gallagher (WI-8). Democrats: Reps. Tony Cardenas (CA-29), Grace Napolitano (CA-31), Tony Cardenas (CA-29), Anna Eshoo (CA-16), Dutch Ruppersberger (MD-2), John Sarbanes (MD-3), Dan Kildee (MI-8), Kathy Manning (NC-6), Wiley Nickel (NC-13), Brian Higgins (NY-26), Earl Blumenauer (OR-3), Jennifer Wexton (VA-10), and Derek Kilmer (WA-6). 

Senate – Democrats: Sens. Debbie Stabenow (MI), Ben Cardin (MD), Tom Carper (DE), Joe Manchin (WV).  Republicans: Mitt Romney (UT). Independents: Kyrsten Sinema (AZ).

President Biden Job Approval (RCP Average): 41% Approve – 56% Disapprove.

Generic Congressional Ballot (RCP Average): Republicans +1.3%. The House currently has a composition of 217 Republicans to 213 Democrats, 4 Vacant. Special Elections: (NY-26, Special: 04/30/2024; CA-20, Special: 05/21/2024; OH-6, Special: 06/11/2024; CO-4, Special: 06/25/2024) The Senate is comprised of 51 Democrats and 49 Republicans.