ASA Washington Weekly – February 20, 2024

Congress:
 

President’s Day Recess: The Senate will be in recess until February 26^th and the House will be out until February 28^th, giving the people’s chamber just 48 hours to pass the 20% of the FY2024 budget that will expire on March 1^st. The remaining 80% will see its funding end on March 8^th. There are a couple of scenarios as to how this will move forward.  A Continuing Resolution (CR) to kick the budget can down the road again could be one way to avoid a government shutdown. Or a series of ‘minibuses’ (as opposed to an omnibus which wraps up all the government spending measures into a single bill) could be agreed upon so that Congress can put the FY2024 budget behind it and focus on the FY2025 budget that will need to be passed by September 30^th. 
 

However, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) will have to operate deftly, as some members of the Republican caucus may not support anymore compromise with their Democratic colleagues. His predecessor, former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), had a Motion to Vacate filed by Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) against him for agreeing to a CR (amongst other reasons), and ultimately saw the House without a Speaker for a month. While there is less of an appetite for the same thing to happen again, Speaker Johnson has a smaller majority than McCarthy did, currently, he is only able to lose two Republicans on any party-line vote. Along with the budget, major legislation like the FAA reauthorization (which is still making its way through the Senate), the Farm Bill, and a security bill that can fund Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, and the southern border – all need to make their way through Congress as soon as possible.
 

Impeachment: The impeachment trial of Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas is anticipated to start when the Senate returns on February 26^th. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) could bring the Articles of Impeachment to the floor for a vote immediately and senators will be promptly sworn in as jurors.  Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) has sent a letter asking Vice President Harris to administer the proceedings (in her constitutional role as President of the Senate), instead of President Pro Tempore Patty Murray (D-WA). Should a full trial be held, this will put a pause on any Senate business until the impeachment is over, as this session of the Senate is not legislative or executive in nature.
 

Politics: 
 

The Five Chairs: After the retirement announcements of House Energy and Commerce Chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA) and House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party Chair Mike Gallagher (R-WI), another colleague added his name to the list – House Homeland Security Chair Mark Green (R-TN).  Rep. Green made the announcement the day after his committee discharged Articles of Impeachment against DHS Secretary Mayorkas. He has served since 2019 and is being floated as a possible candidate for governor in Tennessee in 2026, when Gov. Bill Lee is term limited.  Rep. Green’s announcement makes him the fifth committee chair to announce their retirement when the 118^th Congress ends.   
 

Retirements:  The Congressional retirements continue.  The following House members are retiring from public service:
 

House - Republicans:  Reps. Debbie Lesko (AZ-8), Ken Buck (CO-4), Doug Lamborn (CO-5), Drew Ferguson (GA-3), Greg Pence (IN-6), Larry Bucshon (IN-8), Blaine Luetkemeyer (MO-3), Patrick McHenry (NC-10), George Santos (NY-3), Bill Johnson (OH-6), Mark Green (TN-3), Michael Burgess (TX-26), Jeff Duncan (SC-3), Brad Wenstrup (OH-2), Kay Granger (TX-12), Cathy McMorris Rodgers (WA-5) and Mike Gallagher (WI-8). Democrats: Reps. Tony Cardenas (CA-29), Grace Napolitano (CA-31), Tony Cardenas (CA-29), Anna Eshoo (CA-16), John Sarbanes (MD-3), Dan Kildee (MI-8), Kathy Manning (NC-6), Wiley Nickel (NC-13), Brian Higgins (NY-26), Earl Blumenauer (OR-3), Jennifer Wexton (VA-10), and Derek Kilmer (WA-6). 
 

President Biden Job Approval (RCP Average): 41% Approve – 55% Disapprove.
 

Generic Congressional Ballot (RCP Average): Republicans +2.6%. The House currently has a composition of 219 Republicans to 213 Democrats, 3 Vacant.  Special Elections: (NY-26, Special: 04/30/2024; CA-20, Special: 05/21/2024; OH-6, Special: 06/11/2024) The Senate is comprised of 51 Democrats and 49 Republicans.