ASA Washington Weekly – February 28, 2024

Congress:

Here We Go Again: On Tuesday, Congressional Leadership had a face-to-face meeting with President Biden in the Oval Office to find legislative solutions to the impending budget crisis, aid packages for Ukraine, Israel, & Taiwan, as well as the southern border. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) was optimistic that Republicans would like to avoid a government shutdown and the tone of the conversation was described as ‘intense’ and ‘honest.’ After the meeting, it appeared that a deal was not at hand and the federal government was hurdling towards shutdown. 
 

Upcoming: With the first Continuing Resolution (CR) that represents 20% of federal funding ending on March 1^st, the President’s State of the Union (SOTU) address on March 7^th, and the second CR (the remaining 80% of government funding) expiring the next day, government shutdown talk will be at the forefront for at least the following week. Many Republicans realize that if a new CR is not passed in the next 48-72 hours, they will enable President Biden to use his SOTU address to place blame squarely on the GOP. 
 

A New Deal: However, to indicate how quickly things can change in Washington, 24 hours after the meeting at the White House, a deal was struck on a new CR that funds government through the end of the year, with the measure scheduled to hit the floor on Thursday afternoon. At the same time, border funding will also receive attention as both President Biden and former President Trump are scheduled to visit the Texas-Mexico border (at a significant distance from each other) on Thursday. There is some talk about running separate bills on Ukraine aid and the border, however, House Republicans point to H.R. 2 that was passed last year and has yet to be taken up in the Senate, and Senate Democrats point to the bipartisan border security and aid bill that was introduced at the beginning of February and was quickly pronounced DOA. A long road ahead. 
 

Impeachment: On Tuesday, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) said that a full impeachment trial of DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas would be the best way forward in the Senate.  Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer would like to have a quick vote on the articles themselves. If a simple majority rejects them, no trial is necessary. However, if senators vote to move forward, it will suspend any legislative business until the trial is over. Given the current situation with the budget, Leader Schumer will likely wait to act until a funding solution is found.   
 

Politics: 

Michigan: On Tuesday night, Michigan held its 2024 Primaries. On the GOP side (with 96% in), former President Trump received 68.1% to Ambassador Nikki Haley’s 26.5%. The real news was in the Democratic Primary where President Biden received 81%, ‘Uncommitted’ 13.2%, and Marianne Williamson had 3%. Over 100,000 Democratic voters supported ‘Uncommitted’ to express their displeasure with the Biden Administration’s Middle East policies. The uncommitted campaign, led by Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI), was designed to send a message on US support for Israel after October 7^th and the resulting conflict and humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Given that former President Trump only lost Michigan by 154,000 votes in 2020, should these voters stay home in November, it could help bring The Wolverine State back to the Republican column, as Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton here by an 11,000-vote margin in 2016.   
 

Retirements: The Congressional retirements continue. The following House members are retiring from public service:
 

House - Republicans:  Reps. Debbie Lesko (AZ-8), Ken Buck (CO-4), Doug Lamborn (CO-5), Drew Ferguson (GA-3), Greg Pence (IN-6), Larry Bucshon (IN-8), Blaine Luetkemeyer (MO-3), Patrick McHenry (NC-10), George Santos (NY-3), Bill Johnson (OH-6), Mark Green (TN-3), Michael Burgess (TX-26), Jeff Duncan (SC-3), Brad Wenstrup (OH-2), Kay Granger (TX-12), Cathy McMorris Rodgers (WA-5) and Mike Gallagher (WI-8). Democrats: Reps. Tony Cardenas (CA-29), Grace Napolitano (CA-31), Tony Cardenas (CA-29), Anna Eshoo (CA-16), John Sarbanes (MD-3), Dan Kildee (MI-8), Kathy Manning (NC-6), Wiley Nickel (NC-13), Brian Higgins (NY-26), Earl s  (OR-3), Jennifer Wexton (VA-10), and Derek Kilmer (WA-6). 
 

President Biden Job Approval (RCP Average): 41% Approve – 55% Disapprove.
 

Generic Congressional Ballot (RCP Average): Republicans +2.5%. The House currently has a composition of 219 Republicans to 213 Democrats, 3 Vacant.  Special Elections: (NY-26, Special: 04/30/2024; CA-20, Special: 05/21/2024; OH-6, Special: 06/11/2024) The Senate is comprised of 51 Democrats and 49 Republicans.