ASA Washington Weekly – February 6, 2024

Congress:
 

Back-to-Back Losses: On Tuesday night, House Republicans lost two significant votes. First, the Articles of Impeachment for DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas lost on the floor 215-215 (tie votes in the House fail to pass). Immediately after, the standalone Israeli aid bill suffered a quick defeat, 250-180, where a two-thirds majority was needed for passage. With these two failed votes in the House and difficulty with the border/aid bill in the Senate, the Republican caucuses in both chambers will be going back to the legislative drawing board. 
 

Border/Security: After months of negotiations and initial confidence that Senate Republicans would support the $188 billion supplemental bill, it is becoming obvious that the funding package will not even get a vote, let alone pass. With half of Senate Republicans publicly opposed, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), a supporter of the measure, told his caucus on Monday night to vote against bringing the bill to the floor. By Tuesday morning, the number two Republican in the Senate, Minority Whip John Thune, announced his opposition to the bill, along with other Republican caucus leaders, Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso and Texas Sen. John Cornyn. On the other side of the Capitol, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) added that if passed as written, it could make the border situation worse. On Tuesday afternoon, President Biden addressed the media encouraging the passage of the bill. With the President adding, “All indications are this bill won’t even move forward to the Senate floor. Why? A simple reason. Donald Trump.”
 

To say that bipartisanship in Washington is not great right now would be an understatement.
 

Tax Relief: Last week, the House passed H.R. 7024 – The Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act – by a vote of 357-70. The bill would allow for the immediate expensing of domestic research and development expenditures (retroactive to January 1, 2022), 100% bonus depreciation for qualifying property (retroactive to January 1, 2023), and an interest expense limitation allowing depreciation and amortization added back (retroactive to January 1, 2024). The bill also increases the child tax credit from $1,600-1,800 and increases $100 per year until expiration in 2025, along with increasing low-income housing credit and financing, some US-Taiwan tax provisions, and additional disaster tax relief. While the bill sailed through the House on a large, bipartisan vote, it remains unclear as to when the Senate will take it up, if at all. After a compromise was reached last week with ‘blue state’ Republicans (particularly those from New York), to bring a bill to the floor to that would increase the state and local tax (SALT) deduction from $10,000 to $20,000, was quickly pulled. Stay tuned.
 

Politics: 
 

Nevada: On Tuesday night, ‘None of these candidates’ won the Nevada Republican Primary with 63.2% of the vote, with former Ambassador Nikki Haley receiving 30.5%. The Silver State has an unusual situation in 2024 where the state mandated a primary that is not recognized by the RNC. The Nevada Republican Party will hold caucuses on February 8^th, that will count towards delegates. 
 

Spartz Changes Course: After announcing last year that she would not seek re-election to her seat, Indiana Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-IN) announced that she would seek re-election in 2024, bringing some continuity to the Indiana delegation which has had several members, including Rep. Greg Pence (the brother of former Vice President Mike Pence), announced their retirements. 
 

Retirements:  The Congressional retirements continue. The following House members are retiring from public service:
 

House - Republicans:  Reps. Debbie Lesko (AZ-8), Ken Buck (CO-4), Doug Lamborn (CO-5), Drew Ferguson (GA-3), Greg Pence (IN-6), Larry Bucshon (IN-8), Blaine Luetkemeyer (MO-3), Patrick McHenry (NC-10), George Santos (NY-3), Bill Johnson (OH-6), Michael Burgess (TX-26), Jeff Duncan (SC-3), Brad Wenstrup (OH-2), and Kay Granger (TX-12). Democrats: Reps. Tony Cardenas (CA-29), Grace Napolitano (CA-31), Tony Cardenas (CA-29), Anna Eshoo (CA-16), John Sarbanes (MD-3), Dan Kildee (MI-8), Kathy Manning (NC-6), Wiley Nickel (NC-13), Brian Higgins (NY-26), Earl Blumenauer (OR-3), Jennifer Wexton (VA-10), and Derek Kilmer (WA-6). 
 

President Biden Job Approval (RCP Average): 41% Approve – 56% Disapprove.
 

Generic Congressional Ballot (RCP Average): Republicans +2.0%. The House currently has a composition of 219 Republicans to 212 Democrats, 3 Vacant.  Special Elections: (CA-20, Primary: 03/19/2024; General: 05/21/2024.  NY-3, General: 02/13/2024).  The Senate is comprised of 51 Democrats and 49 Republicans.