ASA Washington Weekly – January 10, 2024

This Week:

The House and Senate are in session. 
 

Congress:
 

Déjà Vu All Over Again: Both chambers are back in session to begin 2024. There is an immense amount of legislative business to accomplish. Over the weekend, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) found agreement with the White House and Congressional Democrats on a $1.7 trillion spending topline with the first budget deadline just over a week away. This number gives clarity to appropriators in both chambers on spending levels and largely reflects the agreement that former Speaker Kevin McCarthy reached with the White House last year before he was ousted in October. What hasn’t changed is that Speaker Johnson could have to bring another continuing resolution (CR) to the floor, considering that nine days may not be enough time before the current CR ends in part on Jan. 19 and the rest on Feb. 2.  On Tuesday, the No. 2 Republican in the Senate, Minority Whip John Thune (R-SD), suggested a CR until the end of March may be needed to navigate both the House and Senate. Given the Speaker’s opposition to passing an omnibus bill, which wraps all the appropriations bills into one, each piece of legislation will have to be brought to the floor to be voted on. 
 

Other Business: In addition to the FY2024 budget, appropriators will also begin on the FY2025 budget that will need to be passed by Oct. 1. That, along with emergency aid for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, and the Southern border still need to be worked out. Senate Republicans are having a debate within their caucus as to whether Ukraine aid should be conditional on border funding/performance as some of their House colleagues have suggested. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is opposed to this.  Impeachment hearings, along with articles of impeachment for Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas could be filed by House Republicans as early as this week, over their dissatisfaction with the way Secretary Mayorkas has handled the situation at the border. On Tuesday, the House Oversight Committee released a report recommending that Hunter Biden be held in contempt of Congress for his defiance of a subpoena to appear before it in December, resulting in the unexpected appearance of Hunter Biden himself appearing at a House Oversight hearing Wednesday morning. 
 

ASA State Action:
 

Prop 65: Last week, ASA joined its coalition partners by filing comments in opposition to proposed changes to the Proposition 65 short-form regulation. The comments, filed with the California Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment, expressed the deep concerns several industries had about the cost, over warning, potential liability and being unnecessary considering the regulation was revised just five years ago.  ASA will continue to monitor developments and update members as necessary. 
 

Politics:
 

Iowa: The first round to decide the next president of the United States will take place in Iowa next week.  President Biden is expected to easily secure victory on the Democratic side, while former President Trump has a significant lead over Gov. Ron Desantis and former Ambassador Nikki Haley. Keep in mind Iowa uses a caucus system, not a traditional primary system. This means that voters have one opportunity to vote, in person, after hearing speeches from candidate representatives in their area. It is a unique process and oftentimes can produce results that are not reflective in any way of polling.
 

Retirements: The Congressional retirements continue. As things stand now, 397 House members are expected to run for reelection, which has been the average since 1946 (re: Crystal Ball), with several more expected to announce their retirements before primaries begin. Indiana’s House delegation will see significant turnover with four Republicans announcing they will not seek reelection (Reps. Victoria Spartz, Greg Pence, Larry Bucshon and Jim Banks, the latter seeking the open Senate seat).
 

House - Republicans:  Reps. Debbie Lesko (AZ-8), Ken Buck (CO-4), Drew Ferguson (GA-3), Victoria Spartz (IN-5), Greg Pence (IN-6), Larry Bucshon (IN-8), Blaine Luetkemeyer (MO-3), Patrick McHenry (NC-10), George Santos (NY-3), Bill Johnson (OH-6), Michael Burgess (TX-26), Brad Wenstrup (OH-2), and Kay Granger (TX-12). Democrats: Reps. Grace Napolitano (CA-31), Tony Cardenas (CA-29), Anna Eshoo (CA-16), John Sarbanes (MD-3), Dan Kildee (MI-8), Kathy Manning (NC-6), Wiley Nickel (NC-13), Earl Blumenauer (OR-3), Jennifer Wexton (VA-10), and Derek Kilmer (WA-6). 
 

President Biden Job Approval (RCP Average): 40% Approve – 57% Disapprove.
 

Generic Congressional Ballot (RCP Average): Republicans +0.5%. The House currently has a composition of 220 Republicans to 213 Democrats. The Senate is comprised of 51 Democrats and 49 Republicans.