ASA Washington Weekly – January 17, 2024

This Week:

The House and Senate are in session. 
 

Congress:
 

Can Being Kicked: After Congressional leadership came to the stark realization last week that an FY2024 budget would not see passage before the January 19^th and February 2^nd deadlines, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) quickly came to an agreement on a continuing resolution (CR) that would keep government funded through the existing “ladder” approach, with deadlines extended to March 1^st and March 8^th.  With votes cancelled earlier this week due to winter weather conditions, Congress needs all the time it can get to find an agreement on the budget.  While Democrats in both chambers are on board, as a CR represents the status quo, without any funding cuts, some members of the House Freedom Caucus are vehemently opposed.  However, with Democrats united in their support, there is little the opponents can do to stop passage which is expected sometime this week.
 

Supplemental Aid: It is expected that President Biden will meet with Congressional leadership – Speaker Johnson, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), Majority Leader Schumer, and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) at the White House on Wednesday to discuss the national security supplemental.  This would include long awaited aid for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, and presumably, additional funding for the southern border. Given the Republican stance that the President needs to become more personally involved in key legislative negotiations, this meeting could serve to find some agreement on stalled issues in Congress. 
 

Tax Bill: On Tuesday, House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith (R-MO) and Senate Finance Chair Ron Wyden (D-OR) announced that they have agreed to a framework on a long-awaited tax bill that would include $80 billion in relief split between business deductions and an expansion of the child tax credit.  Among the provisions included in the bill: an increase in the deduction amount a business can write off (now $1.29 million, up from $1 million), deductions for research and development, extension of amortization/depreciation for business interest calculations, and the extension of 100% bonus depreciation for eligible property.  All extenders would sunset with the current provisions from the 2017 tax bill in 2025.  Should broader agreement be found, this could be added to another bill for speedy passage, though the bill hasn’t received much support outside of the committees themselves, as liberal Democrats and conservative Republicans are skeptical.  Stay tuned.   
 

ASA Federal Action:
 

WIOA Reauthorization: This week, ASA joined its coalition partners in supporting the re-authorization of the Workforce Investment and Opportunity Act (WIOA aforementioned committees).  The legislation (A Stronger Workforce for America Act) is bipartisan in nature and helps to re-allocate workforce development funding to be more effective and flexible, to provide better initial and on-the-job training.  ASA has had the opportunity to meet with the majority staff on the House Education and Workforce Committee to discuss, and the provisions contained within should be of great benefit to our industry, given the labor challenges it is currently facing now and in the future.
 

Joint-Employer Rule: Last week, the House of Representatives passed a Congressional Review Act (CRA) resolution to revoke the National Labor Review Board’s recently released Joint Employer Rule by a vote of 206-177.  This is a position that ASA has advocated for since the Board’s ruling, and is a victory in the ongoing battle to try and reverse a proposal that would have a detrimental effect on businesses across the country. 
 

Politics: 
 

Iowa: Donald Trump ran away with the Republican vote in Iowa on Monday night, defeating his next closest opponent, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis by almost 30 points.  Former Ambassador and South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley finished in third, just over two points behind Gov. DeSantis.  Due to their poor performances, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson both suspended their campaigns shortly after the Iowa results were tallied.  The New Hampshire primary is up next, with some polling showing Trump and Haley in a dead heat. 
 

Retirements: The Congressional retirements continue.  As things stand now, 397 House Members are expected to run for re-election, which has been the average since 1946 (re: Crystal Ball), with several more expected to announce their retirements before primaries begin.  The following members are retiring from public service:
 

House - Republicans:  Reps. Debbie Lesko (AZ-8), Ken Buck (CO-4), Doug Lamborn (CO-5), Drew Ferguson (GA-3), Victoria Spartz (IN-5), Greg Pence (IN-6), Larry Bucshon (IN-8), Blaine Luetkemeyer (MO-3), Patrick McHenry (NC-10), George Santos (NY-3), Bill Johnson (OH-6), Michael Burgess (TX-26), Brad Wenstrup (OH-2), and Kay Granger (TX-12). Democrats: Reps. Grace Napolitano (CA-31), Tony Cardenas (CA-29), Anna Eshoo (CA-16), John Sarbanes (MD-3), Dan Kildee (MI-8), Kathy Manning (NC-6), Wiley Nickel (NC-13), Brian Higgins (NY-26), Earl Blumenauer (OR-3), Jennifer Wexton (VA-10), and Derek Kilmer (WA-6). 
 

President Biden Job Approval (RCP Average): 40% Approve – 57% Disapprove.
 

Generic Congressional Ballot (RCP Average): Republicans +1.4%. The House currently has a composition of 220 Republicans to 213 Democrats, 2 Vacant.  Special Elections: (CA-20, Primary: 03/19/2024; General: 05/21/2024.  NY-3, General: 02/13/2024).  The Senate is comprised of 51 Democrats and 49 Republicans.