ASA Washington Weekly – January 24, 2024

Congress:
 

How Far Will It Go: The FY2024 budgetary can was kicked yet again last week with a continuing resolution (CR) keeping government funded through the existing “ladder” approach, with deadlines extended to March 1^st and March 8^th. The CR passed swiftly in both chambers, with President Biden signing it immediately after passage. While appropriators in both chambers insist that progress is being made and negotiations are ongoing, the situation continuously presents a 30-to-60-day cycle of CRs needing to be passed, since the beginning of the fiscal year that started last fall. Concurrently, Congress is starting to work on budget priorities for the FY2025 fiscal year, which begins on October 1^st. There should be more movement after the President’s budget request and the State of the Union, with the latter taking place on March 7^th.
 

Supplemental Aid, Part II: After President Biden met with Congressional leadership at the White House last week, it is expected that a bill will come to the Senate floor as soon as this week. This legislation would include long awaited aid for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, and presumably, additional funding for the southern border. So far, it doesn’t appear that Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is supportive, and the bill could be DOA in the House. 
 

Slim Majority: With Sunday’s retirement of Rep. Bill Johnson (R-OH) to take the helm of Youngstown State University, Republicans are now down to a 219-213 majority in the House. In addition, there are two Republican House members currently out due to health reasons, creating additional difficulties for Speaker Johnson to get legislation passed. Rep. Brian Higgins (D-NY) is expected to resign next month, which will offer some temporary relief for House Republicans.
 

Tax Bill: On Tuesday night, the text was released for H.R. 7024, the Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act. The $78 billion tax relief bill would offer an increased child tax credit (CTC) along with several business deductions. Senate Republicans have offered some skepticism over the CTC portion of the bill, but some of those issues could be fixed at the committee level and through floor amendments. The House Ways and Means Committee passed the bill out on a strong bipartisan vote, which could help with success on the House floor and what happens in the Senate later. 
 

Politics: 
 

New Hampshire: On Tuesday night, former President Donald Trump became the first non-incumbent candidate (since the current system was put in place in 1976) to win both Iowa and New Hampshire. With 92% of the vote reporting, Donald Trump leads Nikki Haley 54.6% - 43.2%.  Amb. Haley spoke shortly after the polls closed, telling her supporters that she is in it for the long haul. The Nevada primary/caucus is up next (an odd system where the state will run the primary on February 6^th and the Nevada Republican Party runs the caucuses on February 8^th, only the latter is good for committed delegates). This will be followed next by South Carolina on February 24^th, where Nikki Haley served as governor from 2011-2017. While many Republicans are expected to start coalescing around Donald Trump as the eventual nominee, Nikki Haley made it very clear on Tuesday night that she has no intention of suspending her campaign any time soon. 
 

Louisiana: Legislators in Baton Rouge approved a new Congressional map that would see the addition of a new Black-majority district at the expense of GOP Rep. Garret Graves. This was a map that U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) opposed. However, Louisiana Republicans wanted to prioritize the protection of Speaker Johnson, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, and Rep. Julia Letlow. This revision will see Louisiana’s Congressional Delegation shift from a 5-1 GOP advantage to 4-2. 
 

Retirements: The Congressional retirements continue. As things stand now, 397 House Members are expected to run for re-election, which has been the average since 1946 (re: Crystal Ball), with several more expected to announce their retirements before primaries begin. The following members are retiring from public service:
 

House - Republicans:  Reps. Debbie Lesko (AZ-8), Ken Buck (CO-4), Doug Lamborn (CO-5), Drew Ferguson (GA-3), Victoria Spartz (IN-5), Greg Pence (IN-6), Larry Bucshon (IN-8), Blaine Luetkemeyer (MO-3), Patrick McHenry (NC-10), George Santos (NY-3), Bill Johnson (OH-6), Michael Burgess (TX-26), Jeff Duncan (SC-3), Brad Wenstrup (OH-2), and Kay Granger (TX-12). Democrats: Reps. Tony Cardenas (CA-29), Grace Napolitano (CA-31), Tony Cardenas (CA-29), Anna Eshoo (CA-16), John Sarbanes (MD-3), Dan Kildee (MI-8), Kathy Manning (NC-6), Wiley Nickel (NC-13), Brian Higgins (NY-26), Earl Blumenauer (OR-3), Jennifer Wexton (VA-10), and Derek Kilmer (WA-6). 
 

President Biden Job Approval (RCP Average): 40% Approve – 56% Disapprove
 

Generic Congressional Ballot (RCP Average): Republicans +1.5%. The House currently has a composition of 219 Republicans to 213 Democrats, 2 Vacant. Special Elections: (CA-20, Primary: 03/19/2024; General: 05/21/2024.  NY-3, General: 02/13/2024). The Senate is comprised of 51 Democrats and 49 Republicans.