ASA Washington Weekly – January 30, 2024

Congress:
 

Tax Relief: H.R. 7024 could be called to the House floor this week on suspension – should Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) if there are votes available for passage. While the Speaker himself has been relatively neutral on the $80 billion legislation that would combine child tax credits, while restoring several business tax deductions. Many swing state Republicans would like to see the state and local tax (SALT) deduction restored in full, while some Democrats do not feel that the bill goes far enough to aid families. 
 

FY2024 Budget: On Friday night, a bipartisan agreement was reached on topline spending levels for each of the 12 appropriations bills for the fiscal year that started on October 1, 2023. This is the next step as Congress faces the next deadlines of March 1^st and 8^th to avoid a government shutdown or to pass another continuing resolution.
 

Impeachment: On Tuesday, the House Homeland Security marked up a resolution to impeach Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas on the two counts of breaching the public trust and willfully ignoring the law – both based on the current situation at the southern border. This will be the second time that the House has ever introduced Articles of Impeachment for a cabinet member and for the first time since 1876. Should the articles pass the full House (moderate Republicans have begun to support the impeachment), a trial will be held in the Senate.   
 

And for Other Purposes: As expected, it appears that the supplemental funding bill for a variety of military aid and additional funding for the southern border is ‘dead on arrival’ in the House. Former President Trump has been opposed to the bill and holds considerable influence amongst House Republicans. Members of the House GOP contend that additional laws are not needed to fix the situation and that President Biden already has the authority needed to stop the flow of people over the border. On the Senate side, several administration nominees are expected to be voted on. Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA) wrote in a Wall Street Journal opinion piece on Monday that he would block all State and Energy Department nominations until pauses “on every new and pending permit for liquified natural gas (LNG) terminals” are lifted. 
 

Politics: 
 

Presidential Money Race:  In Q4 2023, President Biden hauled in $97 million for his campaign, giving him $117 million cash on hand and setting a record for any Democratic presidential candidate in history. Former Ambassador Nikki Haley raised $24 million over the same period, with her super PAC pulling in $51 million during the second half of the year. Former President Trump has not released his numbers at this writing. However, his super PAC (MAGA, Inc.) took in $47 million during the second half of 2023.
 

Retirements: The Congressional retirements continue.  The following House members are retiring from public service:
 

House - Republicans:  Reps. Debbie Lesko (AZ-8), Ken Buck (CO-4), Doug Lamborn (CO-5), Drew Ferguson (GA-3), Victoria Spartz (IN-5), Greg Pence (IN-6), Larry Bucshon (IN-8), Blaine Luetkemeyer (MO-3), Patrick McHenry (NC-10), George Santos (NY-3), Bill Johnson (OH-6), Michael Burgess (TX-26), Jeff Duncan (SC-3), Brad Wenstrup (OH-2), and Kay Granger (TX-12). Democrats: Reps. Tony Cardenas (CA-29), Grace Napolitano (CA-31), Tony Cardenas (CA-29), Anna Eshoo (CA-16), John Sarbanes (MD-3), Dan Kildee (MI-8), Kathy Manning (NC-6), Wiley Nickel (NC-13), Brian Higgins (NY-26), Earl Blumenauer (OR-3), Jennifer Wexton (VA-10), and Derek Kilmer (WA-6). 
 

President Biden Job Approval (RCP Average): 41% Approve – 55% Disapprove.
 

Generic Congressional Ballot (RCP Average): Republicans +1.3%. The House currently has a composition of 219 Republicans to 213 Democrats, 2 Vacant.  Special Elections: (CA-20, Primary: 03/19/2024; General: 05/21/2024.  NY-3, General: 02/13/2024).  The Senate is comprised of 51 Democrats and 49 Republicans.