ASA Washington Weekly – March 13, 2024

Congress:

The Minibuses: After President Biden signed a package of appropriations bills to avert a shutdown of 30% of the federal government last week, Congress has about a week to settle on a new minibus package that will allow for the remaining 70% of spending to be guaranteed through to the end of the current fiscal year. Senate appropriators seem to be optimistic about the remaining bills, with Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME) and Patty Murray (D-WA) indicating that agreement should be found before the deadline of March 22^nd. 
 

The President’s Budget Proposal: Building on some of the measures President Biden outlined during the State of the Union address last Thursday, the Biden Administration released a $7.3 trillion FY2025 budget proposal. Some of the highlights include: $5.5 trillion in projected revenue, $1.6 trillion in discretionary spending, a $1.8 trillion projected deficit, and it projects $3.2 trillion in deficit reduction even though the debt is projected to reach 106% of GDP by 2030. The plan calls for raising the corporate tax rate from 21-28% and raising the top income tax bracket to 39.6% for those making over $400,000 a year. It would also provide some homeowners tax relief by providing $400 a month to alleviate the impact from high interest rates. This plan will be dead on arrival in the current House; however, it provides a glimpse as to the position where Democrats will be negotiating from during bipartisan discussions.
 

The Buck Stops Here: Rep. Ken Buck (R-CO) announced on Tuesday that he will resign his seat effective March 22^nd. Having already announced that he would not seek re-election in 2024, he made a quick decision to leave Congress early, shocking many of his colleagues and leaving Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) with an even smaller majority next week, leaving Republicans with a 218-213 majority, making party line votes even more difficult to succeed. Earlier this year, Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO) announced that she would be switching from her current district in western Colorado, to run in Rep. Buck’s current eastern Colorado district which is significantly more Republican.
 

Politics:
 

Super Tuesday II: On Tuesday evening, President Biden clinched the Democratic nomination and former President Trump received the Republican nomination due to the number of delegates each received. This sets up a rematch of the 2020 election, with a current reversal of polling fortune, where former President Trump leads his incumbent opponent, especially in key swing states.
 

RNC: On Tuesday, after the retirement of Republican National Committee Chair Ronna McDaniel and the election of Co-Chairs Michael Whatley and Lara Trump, roughly 60 RNC staffers were terminated. The RNC currently has $8 million on hand, about a third of what the Democratic National Committee holds in its accounts. With the new leadership change, the RNC is expected to align with the Trump campaign more closely as the election heads to November.
 

Retirements: The Congressional retirements continue. The following House members are retiring from public service:
 

House - Republicans:  Reps. Debbie Lesko (AZ-8), Ken Buck (CO-4), Doug Lamborn (CO-5), Drew Ferguson (GA-3), Greg Pence (IN-6), Larry Bucshon (IN-8), Blaine Luetkemeyer (MO-3), Patrick McHenry (NC-10), George Santos (NY-3), Bill Johnson (OH-6), Michael Burgess (TX-26), Jeff Duncan (SC-3), Brad Wenstrup (OH-2), Kay Granger (TX-12), Cathy McMorris Rodgers (WA-5) and Mike Gallagher (WI-8). Democrats: Reps. Tony Cardenas (CA-29), Grace Napolitano (CA-31), Tony Cardenas (CA-29), Anna Eshoo (CA-16), John Sarbanes (MD-3), Dan Kildee (MI-8), Kathy Manning (NC-6), Wiley Nickel (NC-13), Brian Higgins (NY-26), Earl Blumenauer (OR-3), Jennifer Wexton (VA-10), and Derek Kilmer (WA-6). 
 

President Biden Job Approval (RCP Average): 40% Approve – 56% Disapprove.
 

Generic Congressional Ballot (RCP Average): Republicans +2.4%. The House currently has a composition of 219 Republicans to 213 Democrats, 3 Vacant. Special Elections: (NY-26, Special: 04/30/2024; CA-20, Special: 05/21/2024; OH-6, Special: 06/11/2024) The Senate is comprised of 51 Democrats and 49 Republicans.