ASA Washington Weekly – March 20, 2024

Congress:

Budget Watch: Congress is in a race to get the remaining 80% of the federal budget that has not been passed to the President by 11:59 PM on Friday. Should legislators fail to pass a CR or budget by that time, that portion of the federal government will shut down. Some of the pitfalls have to do with Homeland Security funding, but as of this writing, those talks are ongoing. House rules also provide that members are allowed 72 hours to review any bill before it is put on the floor for a vote. Again, as of this writing, the text has not been released and the clock is ticking. Speaker Johnson could waive the rule, much to the chagrin of several members of the GOP Caucus. There had been rumors that another CR could take this to the end of March, but that also would be the point at which the federal government will be halfway through its fiscal year. 
 

Path to a New Leader: Senate Republicans will hold discussions this week on the process to select a new leader. Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) announced that he would be stepping down from the post, this coming November, after having served in the role since 2007. Currently, Minority Whip John Thune (R-SD) and former GOP Whip John Cornyn (R-TX) are in the running. In addition to leadership, the caucus will also review some of the rules in place including implementing term limits on how long a Senator can serve as leader, when the election will be held, and sharing more power with the rank and file. 
 

5^th Circuit Ruling: Earlier this week, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit stayed the Security and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) financial rules that would require private companies to publicly disclose their emissions and assess the risk that climate change would have on their business. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, several states, and energy concerns filed petitions for review on the matter. Stay tuned. 
 

Politics:

Tuesday Results: Key primary races took place in several states this week. Among the highlights:
 

Ohio Senate: Trump-endorsed Bernie Moreno defeated his next closest opponent 50-33, in a hard-fought race for the Republican nomination and the chance to take on incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), who is widely considered to have one of the most endangered Democratic seats in the country. 
 

CA-20: Vince Fong failed to reach 50% in the special election to succeed former Speaker Kevin McCarthy in this central California seat. He will face a runoff in May and will leave a critical GOP vote off the House floor until then. 
 

OH-9: State Rep. Derrick Merrin will face Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur in this Republican-leaning seat. 
 

IL-7: Democratic Congressman Danny Davis saw off a challenge to his seat by several challengers who used his age (82) as a focus of their campaigns. It didn’t work.
 

IL-12: Rep. Mike Bost, who received the coveted Trump endorsement in this southern Illinois seat, defeated the 2022 Republican Gubernatorial nominee Darren Bailey.
 

Retirements: The Congressional retirements continue.  The following House members are retiring from public service:
 

House - Republicans:  Reps. Debbie Lesko (AZ-8), Ken Buck (CO-4), Doug Lamborn (CO-5), Drew Ferguson (GA-3), Greg Pence (IN-6), Larry Bucshon (IN-8), Blaine Luetkemeyer (MO-3), Patrick McHenry (NC-10), George Santos (NY-3), Bill Johnson (OH-6), Michael Burgess (TX-26), Jeff Duncan (SC-3), Brad Wenstrup (OH-2), Kay Granger (TX-12), Cathy McMorris Rodgers (WA-5) and Mike Gallagher (WI-8). Democrats: Reps. Tony Cardenas (CA-29), Grace Napolitano (CA-31), Tony Cardenas (CA-29), Anna Eshoo (CA-16), John Sarbanes (MD-3), Dan Kildee (MI-8), Kathy Manning (NC-6), Wiley Nickel (NC-13), Brian Higgins (NY-26), Earl Blumenauer (OR-3), Jennifer Wexton (VA-10), and Derek Kilmer (WA-6). 
 

President Biden Job Approval (RCP Average): 40% Approve – 56% Disapprove.
 

Generic Congressional Ballot (RCP Average): Republicans +2.5%. The House currently has a composition of 218 Republicans to 213 Democrats, 3 Vacant.  Special Elections: (NY-26, Special: 04/30/2024; CA-20, Special: 05/21/2024; OH-6, Special: 06/11/2024) The Senate is comprised of 51 Democrats and 49 Republicans.