ASA Washington Weekly – March 26, 2024

Congress:

Last Week: The House averted a budget crisis (again) by approving a minibus spending package, by 286-134, to take the federal government to the end of its fiscal year on September 30^th. The agreement was not without controversy as Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) had to waive a House rule, allowing 72 hours to review major bills before a vote. The text of the bill was released at 2:30 AM on Thursday and sent to the House floor on Friday, allowing time for Senate passage and for President Biden to sign it on Saturday. The agreement itself largely stuck to the spending agreement hammered out by former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA). Ironically, one member had the same reaction to the passage of the spending compromise, that former Speaker Kevin McCarthy suffered after a similar vote.
 

Motion to Vacate, Part 2: Shortly after passage of the remaining FY2024 appropriations bills, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) filed a Motion to Vacate against Speaker Mike Johnson on Friday morning. With history repeating itself, Rep. Taylor Greene cited her displeasure at a compromise agreement akin to how former Speaker McCarthy was removed for the same transgression amongst House Freedom Caucus members, while leaving the House without a Speaker for over a month. Unlike the motion filed against Kevin McCarthy, this does not have the requirement that the House take up the motion within two legislative days, although she can call it at any time. As the House will be in recess for the next two weeks, this will give the House GOP some time to negotiate with Congresswoman Taylor Greene on the issue. Right now, many of the members who voted to remove former Speaker McCarthy have signaled that they do not have the same appetite to remove Speaker Johnson. After paralyzing Congress for the better part of last October, and with no clear candidate to replace him, at this moment it does not appear that the motion would be successful. However, as has been seen during this Congress, anything can happen.
 

Perilous Majority: After the surprise of having Rep. Ken Buck’s retirement become effective last Friday, the House GOP took another hit as Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI), who previously announced that he would not seek re-election in 2024, shocked his colleagues with the announcement that he would resign his seat next month. Currently vacant seats (there are now four), along with impending retirements are putting the Republican House majority in serious jeopardy. After the currently announced retirements, coupled with vacancies, the GOP majority will go down to 1-2 seats in May. Should there be any additional losses of Republicans, there is some speculation that House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) could take the Speaker’s gavel for a time, until special elections are held for the vacant seats. As of this writing, there are four vacant seats, with three of those previously held by Republicans. There is mounting pressure on Rep. Gallagher by his colleagues to delay his retirement, considering the chance that Democrats could take the majority in the chamber. Stay tuned. 
 

ASA Federal Action:

AD Spring Network Meeting: Last week, ASA helped to facilitate almost 90 meetings with Senators and Representatives on Capitol Hill, with close to 300 members in attendance. AD and ASA members received a Hill orientation and update from ASA VP of Advocacy Steve Rossi, as well as having the opportunity to listen to insights from Congressman Rudy Yakym (IN), who sits on the House Budget and Transportation & Infrastructure Committees. Congressman Yakym provided unique insights on federal issues, stressed the importance of outreach to legislators and took questions from the audience. Members advocated on a variety of issues during their time on the Hill, including protecting TCJA tax cuts, asking for repeal of the estate tax, protecting LIFO and 199A deductions, and support for the REINS Act, that would bring major regulatory rules under Congressional review.
 

Politics:

New Jersey: On Monday, First Lady of New Jersey Tammy Murphy dropped a political bombshell when she announced that she was suspending her campaign, for the seat currently held by the federally indicted Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ), who is not seeking re-election. The wife of Gov. Phil Murphy (D) had announced her candidacy in December, following the entrance of Rep. Andy Kim. Congressman Kim announced that he would challenge Sen. Menendez shortly following the senator’s indictment that he allegedly helped foreign entities in return for gifts. The Kim-Murphy battle for the Democratic nomination set off a proxy war between the establishment and progressives in the Garden State. Her withdrawal from the race, leaves Rep. Kim as the de facto nominee, and ultimately the next senator from New Jersey, as a Republican has not been elected there since Sen. Clifford Case won his last term in 1972.  
 

Retirements:  The Congressional retirements continue.  The following legislators are retiring from public service:
 

House - Republicans:  Reps. Debbie Lesko (AZ-8), Ken Buck (CO-4), Doug Lamborn (CO-5), Drew Ferguson (GA-3), Greg Pence (IN-6), Larry Bucshon (IN-8), Blaine Luetkemeyer (MO-3), Patrick McHenry (NC-10), George Santos (NY-3), Bill Johnson (OH-6), Michael Burgess (TX-26), Jeff Duncan (SC-3), Brad Wenstrup (OH-2), Kay Granger (TX-12), Cathy McMorris Rodgers (WA-5) and Mike Gallagher (WI-8). Democrats: Reps. Tony Cardenas (CA-29), Grace Napolitano (CA-31), Tony Cardenas (CA-29), Anna Eshoo (CA-16), Dutch Ruppersberger (MD-2), John Sarbanes (MD-3), Dan Kildee (MI-8), Kathy Manning (NC-6), Wiley Nickel (NC-13), Brian Higgins (NY-26), Earl Blumenauer (OR-3), Jennifer Wexton (VA-10), and Derek Kilmer (WA-6). 
 

Senate – Democrats: Sens. Debbie Stabenow (MI), Ben Cardin (MD), Tom Carper (DE), Joe Manchin (WV). Republicans: Mitt Romney (UT). Independents: Kyrsten Sinema (AZ).
 

President Biden Job Approval (RCP Average): 40% Approve – 56% Disapprove.
 

Generic Congressional Ballot (RCP Average): Republicans +1.4%. The House currently has a composition of 217 Republicans to 213 Democrats, 4 Vacant. Special Elections: (NY-26, Special: 04/30/2024; CA-20, Special: 05/21/2024; OH-6, Special: 06/11/2024; CO-4, Special: 06/25/2024) The Senate is comprised of 51 Democrats and 49 Republicans.