ASA Washington Weekly – March 5, 2024

Congress:
 

The 11^th Hour: In a last second agreement, Congress was able to pass a continuing resolution (CR) to take government funding a little bit further last week. As a result, a package of six spending bills representing about 30% of federal spending needs to be passed by this Friday. Legislation representing the remaining 70% has until March 22^nd to be passed. The legislation provides something for both Republicans and Democrats, along with roughly 6,000 earmarks for member projects. This has distressed some of the more conservative members, including those in the House Freedom Caucus, although they have admitted they can do little to stop it since a majority of the House is expected to support the ‘minibuses’ to avoid a government shutdown.
 

SOTU: On Thursday evening, President Biden will give his State of the Union address in front of a joint session of Congress. He is expected to highlight his accomplishments as president, ahead of the November election, call on unity in Congress, and lay out many of his priorities for the remainder of his term. Within the next few weeks, the Biden Administration’s FY2025 budget proposal is likely to be released, setting off work for next year’s budget, while progress is still being made on FY2024.
 

ASA Federal Action UPDATE:
 

CTA: Last Friday, a federal judge in Alabama ruled that the Corporate Transparency Act (CTA) is unconstitutional.  The CTA, passed as part of the 2021 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), was designed as an anti-money laundering effort. However, it ensnares most small businesses, by requiring reporting the names and addresses of any beneficial owner including senior employees and board members to the Department of the Treasury. Failure to comply would result in civil and criminal penalties. While this is not the last battle over the CTA, ASA will continue in its now three-year opposition to this burdensome regulation.
 

Politics:
 

Leader McConnell: Last week, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) took to the Senate floor to announce that he would step down as the Republican leader this November. Serving in this role since 2007, he is the longest serving party in the Senate in history. First elected in 1984, Sen. McConnell is also the longest serving U.S. Senator in Kentucky history. This will create a void in Senate Republican leadership and has started an intense race to succeed him. The ‘Three Johns’ were long expected to compete for the role, with Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) announcing his candidacy shortly after the announcement. Senate Minority Whip John Thune, the number two Republican in the Senate, launched his bid for the top spot, on Monday. Sen. John Barrasso (R-WY), said he will run to succeed Whip Thune. While the intentions of the ‘Three Johns’ are clear, potential dark horses could throw their hats into the ring, like Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) who unsuccessfully challenged Leader McConnell at the beginning of the current Congress. He is also up for re-election in 2024, which could complicate a bid. While stepping down from his leadership role, Sen. McConnell will see out the rest of his term and is not up for re-election until 2026.
 

Sinema Out: On Tuesday, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) announced that she will not seek re-election to her seat. This closes months of speculation on a potentially challenging three-way race in Arizona. The former Democratic senator and representative announced in 2022 that she would become an Independent, while still caucusing with the Democrats. Moving increasingly towards the center of the political spectrum during her term, some of her positions rankled progressive members of the Democratic Party, much like that of retiring Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV).  With Sen. Sinema out of the race, this will likely set a matchup between Rep. Ruben Gallego (D) and 2022 GOP Gubernatorial Nominee Kari Lake. 
 

Green Back: After his recent announcement that he would retire at the end of his current term, Rep. Mark Green (R-TN), decided that he will run for re-election in 2024. The chairman of the House Committee on Homeland Security since the beginning of the current Congress, he was strongly encouraged to run again by none other than former President Donald Trump.
 

Retirements: The Congressional retirements continue.  The following House members are retiring from public service:
 

House - Republicans:  Reps. Debbie Lesko (AZ-8), Ken Buck (CO-4), Doug Lamborn (CO-5), Drew Ferguson (GA-3), Greg Pence (IN-6), Larry Bucshon (IN-8), Blaine Luetkemeyer (MO-3), Patrick McHenry (NC-10), George Santos (NY-3), Bill Johnson (OH-6), Michael Burgess (TX-26), Jeff Duncan (SC-3), Brad Wenstrup (OH-2), Kay Granger (TX-12), Cathy McMorris Rodgers (WA-5) and Mike Gallagher (WI-8). Democrats: Reps. Tony Cardenas (CA-29), Grace Napolitano (CA-31), Tony Cardenas (CA-29), Anna Eshoo (CA-16), John Sarbanes (MD-3), Dan Kildee (MI-8), Kathy Manning (NC-6), Wiley Nickel (NC-13), Brian Higgins (NY-26), Earl Blumenauer (OR-3), Jennifer Wexton (VA-10), and Derek Kilmer (WA-6). 
 

President Biden Job Approval (RCP Average): 40% Approve – 57% Disapprove.
 

Generic Congressional Ballot (RCP Average): Republicans +2.5%. The House currently has a composition of 219 Republicans to 213 Democrats, 3 Vacant.  Special Elections: (NY-26, Special: 04/30/2024; CA-20, Special: 05/21/2024; OH-6, Special: 06/11/2024) The Senate is comprised of 51 Democrats and 49 Republicans.