ASA Washington Weekly – November 20, 2023

ASA Federal Action:

CTA Delay: ASA signed a letter to House and Senate leaders urging them to delay implementation of the Corporate Transparency Act (CTA) until rules can be finalized and business owners can be educated on requirements. ASA sent a letter in September supporting Financial Services Chair and then-Speaker Pro Tempore Patrick McHenry’s legislation that would codify this effort.

OSHA Workplace Walkaround Rule: Last week, ASA filed joint comments opposing OSHA’s proposed Walkaround rule, which would allow non-employee representatives to accompany OSHA workplace safety officers during their inspections. 

Joint Employer CRA: ASA joined its coalition allies in urging Congress to review the Joint Employer rule through the Congressional Review Act. 

Politics

Retirements: Late last week, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) announced that he would not seek reelection in 2024, effectively handing the seat to Republicans and providing a 50-50 split to start off the 2024 election cycle in the Senate.  In the House, retirements have come fast and furious over the last few weeks. Here are the members of Congress who will step down from government at the end of their current term – Republicans:  Reps. Debbie Lesko (AZ-8), Ken Buck (CO-4), Victoria Spartz (IN-5), Brad Wenstrup (OH-2) and Kay Granger (TX-12). Democrats: Reps. Grace Napolitano (CA-31), John Sarbanes (MD-3), Earl Blumenauer (OR-3), Jennifer Wexton (VA-10) and Derek Kilmer (WA-6). 

Senate 2024: With just under a year to go before the 2024 general election, Democrats currently have the slimmest of majorities in the upper chamber. A few of the key races to watch and where they stand right now – Arizona: Former GOP Gubernatorial Candidate Kari Lake announced in October where she will take on Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb in the Primary. Rep. Ruben Gallego is the apparent Democratic nominee and incumbent Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema has not yet announced her intentions.  California: With the recent announcement of newly appointed Sen. Laphonza Butler (D) that she would not run for re-election, the intense battle in the Democratic Primary between Reps. Barbara Lee, Katie Porter and Adam Schiff continues. In an interesting development, 10-time MLB All-Star and former Los Angeles Dodger and San Diego Padre Steve Garvey announced his intention to run for the seat as a Republican. Keep in mind that in California, the top two vote getters (regardless of party) advance to the General. While this is likely a safe Democratic seat, if Garvey makes it into the final round, things could get interesting.  Michigan: Four-term Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) announced that she would not seek another term in January, giving both Democrats and Republicans ample time to field candidates for 2024. On the Democratic side, Rep. Elisa Slotkin is the early frontrunner, known for her moderate politics, but will have to face a slew of other Democratic candidates in the Primary. Republicans have a strong field in their Primary, with former Reps. Mike Rogers and Peter Meijer announced, as well as former Detroit Police Chief James Craig. Rep. Meijer lost the 2022 GOP Primary for his Western Michigan seat when Trump supporters exacted their political revenge, after the retail store scion voted to impeach the former president. Senate Republicans have been unhappy about his entrance into the race, having already recruited Rogers to run for the seat. Meijer has a high name ID, owing to the retail chain that bears his name across the Midwest, as well as vast personal resources to invest in the race. Montana: One of the best chances for a Republican pickup, Sen. Jon Tester has continually defied the odds, even as his state trends more and more Republican. This is also a unique situation where fellow Montana Sen. Steve Daines is the chair of the National Republican Senate Committee (NRSC) and clearly seeking Tester’s defeat. Given the importance of this seat to Sen. Daines, Republicans were quick to recruit businessman and retired Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy. Former Montana Secretary of State and Chair of the Montana Public Service Commission Brad Johnson has already declared.  Pundits are waiting for the expected announcement of GOP Rep. Matt Rosendale, who lost to Sen. Tester, 50-47 in 2018. A Republican candidate, tech entrepreneur and USAF veteran Troy Downing, has announced for the Rosendale seat, increasing speculation.  Rep. Rosendale has yet to announce whether he will run for Senate or re-election to his House seat.  One to watch. 

President Biden Job Approval (RCP Average): 41% Approve – 55% Disapprove.

Generic Congressional Ballot (RCP Average): Democrats +0.4%. The House currently has a composition of 221 Republicans to 213 Democrats (1 vacancy). The Senate is comprised of 51 Democrats and 49 Republicans. Special Elections: Republican: UT-2 - General: 11/21/2023.