ASA’s August Economic Report: Sluggish Fall Economic Conditions Looking for a Catalyst

Global economic conditions headed into the fall season are sluggish, but a US Federal Reserve Interest rate cut in September could provide a growth catalyst that lifts many sectors important to ASA members. 

From the August 2024 ASA Monthly Economic Report: There may be some signals that cause some concern regarding the performance of the economy through the remainder of this year but the latest assessment from the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow research is still pointing at a 2.1% growth rate for the third quarter. Given that analysts were suggesting near recessionary numbers just a couple of months ago, this is good news. Obviously, these numbers can and do shift fast, but Q3 is generally a pretty robust quarter.

The monthly ASA Economic Report is produced by Armada Corporate Intelligence, ASA’s business intelligence partner, and is available as a free member benefit for ASA members through the MyASA portal at www.asa.net/myasa.
 

Armada wrote that the latest data on housing starts shows the sector is still struggling... Some of the trepidation may be related to interest rate questions. If, indeed, the rates come down the likelihood is that mortgage rates will fall as well and that keeps people on the fence to a degree.

The interest rate watch is in full swing as it has become obvious that a cut will be made. The question is when and by how much. The latest statements from the Fed suggest that a September cut of one quarter point is the most likely, but the Fed hawks are still urging caution as inflation threats have not completely faded.

Additionally, Armada gave some insight on what might change when the election happens. Nobody really knows the outcome of this November’s election but there are some assumptions that can be offered at this point. It is important to note that what happens in Congress and at the state and local level matters more to businesses than what happens in the White House. Armada talks about three areas set for some profound change.

The report also answers a reader’s question of the month: What is the Solution to Worker Shortage?

Again, ASA members can access the Monthly Economic Report through the MyASA portal at www.asa.net/myasa.