ASA’s January Economic Report: Building Economic Momentum in Early Q1, Can We Maintain It?

From January 2025 ASA Monthly Economic Report: Largely driven by consumer spending (81% of GDP contribution in Q4), growth rates for all of 2024 were 2.8% and are expected to be in the 2.5% to 2.7% range in 2025. Trump Administration tariff risk could be a factor in 2025, but if it ultimately follows the 2018-2019 pattern, many tariff exclusions could be granted (18,200 granted in 2019). It may take time to grant the exclusions once blanket tariffs have been in place for a short period of time.

The monthly ASA Economic Report is produced by Armada Corporate Intelligence, ASA’s business intelligence partner, and is available as a free member benefit for ASA members through the MyASA portal at www.asa.net/myasa.
 

Armada wrote tariff risk will continue to be the main concern moving forward in the early quarters of the Trump Administration, until amicable trade terms can be met. China tariffs will have a more difficult time easing before Canadian and Mexican tariffs are modified. Whether these ushers in dynamic supply chain strategies that spread out risk using sourcing diversification (including reshoring), or the sector simply absorbs and/or passes on tariffs to end users is still a big question.

Additionally, Armada gave some insight into this new economic cycle. Adapting and remaining flexible as market conditions go through cycle changes will be important in 2025 as the new administration uses every tool in their toolbox to 1) keep the economy growing while 2) trimming government spending and 3) keep inflation tame. That is a difficult and tall order, but it could mean interesting things for the business community.

The report also answers a reader’s question of the month: Is it too early to be this optimistic about the outlook ahead for manufacturing?

Again, ASA members can access the Monthly Economic Report through the MyASA portal at www.asa.net/myasa.