ASA’s July Economic Report: Slowing into the Second Half - Temporary Lull?

From the July 2024 ASA Monthly Economic Report: It has become distressingly routine, but it seems the economists collectively missed the latest quarterly forecast again.

According to the latest data from GDPNow, The Q1 numbers were much worse than expected (2.5% was estimated and the actual number was 1.3%). The estimates for Q2 were as low as 1.5% but in the end, there was 2.8% growth, and this matches the pace that was set last year. There is a lot of info in the detail, but the most important observation was that much of this growth was down to consumer behavior and spending.

The monthly ASA Economic Report is produced by Armada Corporate Intelligence, ASA’s business intelligence partner, and is available as a free member benefit for ASA members through the MyASA portal at www.asa.net/myasa.
 

Armada wrote that the conjecture on when interest rates will change has altered. There are those that assert that a quarter point cut will take place as early as September but there are still many hawks at the Fed that think that would be premature. The inflation rate has come down but not as far as the Fed would prefer when it comes to core issues (especially wages).

Additionally, Armada gave some insight on the issues that matter most to members… interest rates, labor costs and challenges with the labor market, as well as the issues of the supply chain. Armada speaks on all three of these concerns for ASA members.

The report also answers a reader’s question of the month: What are the three main risks supply chain managers needs to be considering?

Again, ASA members can access the Monthly Economic Report through the MyASA portal at www.asa.net/myasa.