ASA’s March Economic Report: Trigger Points and Controversy, Are Members Seeing Improvements in the 2024 Economy?

From the March 2024 ASA Monthly Economic Report: The initial expectation for Q1 GDP was anemic – less than 1.0% growth. But then again, the estimates for GDP growth through all of 2023 were off and significantly. The latest suggestion is that first quarter growth will be at 2.8% and that is up from the 2.3% estimate of just a couple of weeks ago. The consumer keeps powering the economy at a pace that was expected to slow by this juncture.
 

The US manufacturing sector has now crested above the 50 line for the Purchasing Managers’ Index for two month in a row and that has taken the US to 52.2. Canada is still in contraction at 49.7 while Mexico keeps growing at 52.3 (up from 50.2 the month prior). As the industrial numbers above suggest the improved weather situation has had an impact but so has steady consumer demand and the latest improvements in the construction arena.
 

The monthly ASA Economic Report is produced by Armada Corporate Intelligence, ASA’s business intelligence partner, and is available as a free member benefit for ASA members through the MyASA portal at www.asa.net/myasa.

Additionally, Armada noted that there are two significant trigger points – which are events and developments that will likely change the outlook for the economy. The first trigger is a series of hints that the Federal Reserve may not lower rates by three quarters of a point before the end of the year. They are still stating that this is on the table but there have been comments from the more influential members pointing out that there is no real urgency given the current data. And the second trigger involves China and its impact on the US and global economy. While the rest of the world is contending with inflation threats, the Chinese are worrying about deflation. Prices have been falling fast as the nation contends with the collapse of the property market and subsequent fall in the stock market. The impact on the US is that Chinese goods will become more competitive and cheaper than ever and that will inhibit that reshoring movement that started with the pandemic crisis.
 

The report also answers a reader’s question of the month: What is happening in the oil sector? Including the controversy when it comes to energy and what the bottom line is with alternative energy development.

Again, ASA members can access the Monthly Economic Report through the MyASA portal at www.asa.net/myasa.