ASA’s October Economic Report: The Calm After the Storm

October headlines and data was impacted and influenced by everything from hurricanes to labor strikes, and election uncertainty to conflict concerns. Economic data was impacted and the path ahead may still be a bit murky, but the country will enter a new recovery phase on many fronts. 

From October 2024 ASA Monthly Economic Report: Q3 GDP ended up splitting the difference between the optimists and the pessimists. A month or so ago the consensus view was that Q3 would finish below 2.0% and perhaps as low as it was in Q1. Then the data from GDPNow started to indicate a growth rate above 3.0%. In the end the Q3 numbers came in at 2.8% - at least for the first iteration. This is very good news for those seeking a decent end to the year as the fourth quarter is generally strong if the retail season is healthy.

The monthly ASA Economic Report is produced by Armada Corporate Intelligence, ASA’s business intelligence partner, and is available as a free member benefit for ASA members through the MyASA portal at www.asa.net/myasa.
 

Armada wrote that at the time of writing, things tend to get strange when there is a transition at the White House. The incumbent remains in power for a while and has limited time to put a stamp on things. There could be a flurry of executive actions and some of these will impact the economy of 2025.

 It has been noted that both the Democrats and Republicans are tilting towards populist themes and that means general animosity towards free trade and globalization. There is a strong sense that nationalism and isolationism will be a theme regardless of who wins the Presidency or Congress. There will be trade barriers and tariffs and not all of them will benefit ASA member companies.

Additionally, Armada gave some insight into what actually changes with the election. By all accounts, the contest is going to be very close and given the rhetoric the outcome could well be in doubt or challenged for some time. The burning question is what would change as far as the economy is concerned? Obviously there have been differing policy positions outlined by both Trump and Harris but how much of this is campaign fodder?

The report also answers a reader’s question of the month: What the Heck is the “K” Recovery?

Again, ASA members can access the Monthly Economic Report through the MyASA portal at www.asa.net/myasa.