December Sales Trends: Positive Momentum to Close 2024 Strong

The Industrial PVF firms reported a modest 0.2% increase in year-over-year sales for December. This was consistent with their Year-to-Date (YTD) and Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) sales as well. PHCP firms reported 6.7% growth for December, bringing their YTD sales growth to nearly 3%. Although PHCP & PVF firms reported an increase of 6.2% in December, their YTD sales finished at -0.5%.

All respondents overall reported a median sales increase of 5.5% for December 2024 vs. 2023. On a month-to-month basis, December sales were up slightly (0.1%) vs. November. Year-to-date (YTD) and TTM sales for 2024 finished the year in positive territory, expanding 1.1%. Inventory increased 3.5% for December 2024 vs. December 2023. The median Three-Months Average Days Sales Outstanding remained at around 40 days for December.

Industrial PVF:
By primary business emphasis, the Industrial PVF firms reported a modest 0.2% increase in year-over-year sales for December. This was consistent with their Year-to-Date (YTD) and Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) sales as well.

Economic Indicators:
The final "Real" GDP growth figure for the 3rd quarter 2024 was 3.1%. Total wholesale sales for November increased 2.0% year-over-year, while inventories expanded 0.8% vs. the prior year. The growth in "Real" wholesale sales was only 1.7%--indicating a slight uptick in inflation even though we remain in a disinflationary period.

Housing starts increased significantly in December, following three consecutive months of declines. After a sharp increase in November, housing permits softened slightly in December. On a year-to-date basis, multi-family starts and permits both remain down significantly year-over-year, while single family starts and permits are both up. The unemployment rate for December dropped to 4.1%, wrapping up the third consecutive year with unemployment averaging below 4.5%

What ASA members are saying:

• “2024 finished worse than we budgeted, but we still beat PY numbers. We are expecting approx. 8% growth next year. This growth will be driven through segment expansion in certain regions, opening new branches, and a switch from deflation to flat prices.”
• “Activity remained soft compared to previous year and even more against budget. Quote activity did improve, so expecting sales to pick up late Q1 2025.”
• “December was pretty slow at top-line (lowest month of the year) and margin continued to trend lower, although we finished the year with slightly higher margins than 2024 overall. We believe sales will continue to be sluggish into 2025 but have some optimism for things starting to turn in Q2. We’re projecting modest growth overall in ’25.”
• “Finding qualified employees has been a huge challenge, but we are starting this year with four new faces. While our sales were down approximately 7% last year over the prior year, our profit was up over 20%. More sales from our industrial division have helped with the increased profit. There is more business to start this year than there was last year, and that is reason for optimism.”
• “I am cautiously optimistic about the upcoming year. There is a lot of work being bid in our marketplace. Pricing is extremely competitive and there is some uncertainty about what may transpire after inauguration day.”
• “Sales continue to lag last year due to the slow housing market. Inventory levels remained higher, which should put us in a good position to start the new year. We are looking to rebound a little in 2025 with commercial projects and a strong housing market.”
• “Sales were very strong in December boosted by very low temperatures, but managing costs continues to be a struggle.”
• “Slow start to the new year, hoping things will pick up.”
• “The last quarter saw a typical slide in sales due to weather and holidays. There is nothing to suggest a downward trend driven by other forces. Like always, we just need to bear the fall and winter.”
• “The local economy is fairly robust, and there are several projects coming into our state. 2025 is shaping up to be a very good year. Maybe post-election euphoria?”
• “Waterworks and underground contracting business were very busy. Industrial PVF was also up.”
• “We are still in a wait and see time period. Tariffs, Port issues, Interest rates are all a concern. Our feeling is that those issues are something we cannot control, and we have to concentrate on items we can control. We can control effort and hustle.”