Distributor Members Report an Overall Decline in Sales from the Month of June

Following a flat sales month for May, June was even softer for most respondents. By primary business emphasis, the Industrial PVF firms reported that year-over-year monthly sales dropped -14%. PHCP reported flat sales growth for June and PHCP & PVF firms reported a sales decline of -5%. All respondents overall reported a median sales decline of -3% for June 2024 vs. 2023.
 

On a month-to-month basis (June vs. May 2024), sales dropped -4%. At the midway point for 2024, year-to-date (YTD) sales through June 30, 2024, vs. 2023 dipped -0.3% and trailing twelve months (TTM) sales were very similar in dropping -0.5%. Inventory contracted -0.8% for June 2024 vs. June 2023. The median Three- Months Average Days Sales Outstanding remained at 41 days for June.

Industrial PVF:

By primary business emphasis, the Industrial PVF firms reported that year over-year monthly sales declined by huge 14.1%. PHCP reported no change in at 0% and PHCP & PVF firms reported a sales decrease of 1.6%. All respondents overall reported a median sales decline of -5.3% for May 2024 vs. 2023.

Economic Indicators:
The final "Real" GDP growth figure for the 1st quarter 2024 was revised upward slightly to 1.4%. Total wholesale sales for May increased 1.9% year-over-year, while inventories decreased -0.5% vs. the prior year. The growth in "Real" wholesale sales came in at 1.4%--continuing the recent signs of inflation softening and that we remain in a disinflationary period. Housing starts and permits both increased for June vs. May. Year-to-date single family starts and permits are both up vs. 2023. Multi-family is down significantly year-over-year. The unemployment rate for June edged up to 4.1%--the third consecutive month of increases.

What ASA members are saying:

“Sales continue to lag, and inventory remains high, but we continue to work to decrease what we are carrying.”

“Continued high rates are leading to decreased contractor demand. We are hoping to see a rate cut in September that will bring 2025 revenues back to where we expected them this year.”

“June was a strong month, despite 2 less selling days year over year. Price competition has heated up, but the pipeline is looking stronger than 6 months ago.”

“Persistent softness in project related sales resulted in negative comparisons to the prior year period. Service-related sales continued to remain stable. Impacting factors continue to be high interest rates, inflationary cost levels, skilled labor shortages and concerns related to the election year.”

“Sales better than anticipated but margins still lagging.”

“Sales dropped quite a bit compared to June of last year, but our expenses are down so our profit is up. So far, July seems to be busier.”