Dr. Chris Kuehl Presents 2025 Economic Outlook at NETWORK2024

As part of NETWORK2024 in Chicago, ASA Chief Economist Dr. Chris Kuehl delivered his LIXIL 2025 Economic Outlook.

Among the many highlights, Dr. Kuehl provided some insights on the current economic themes… immigration, tariffs, manufacturing support, regulatory reform, and technology.

Additionally, Dr. Kuehl pointed out that the global manufacturing is slowing down. Preliminary data shows 18 countries had manufacturing sectors in contraction in September (a few had not yet reported at the time of the report). 19 out of 30 countries surveyed fell M/M. He listed some general themes: New orders were sluggish in September, Input prices were still high, Pushback on selling prices (customers not accepting hikes), Hiring has stalled, some countries seeing reductions in headcount, and yet, most manufacturers remain optimistic about the future.
 

Services sectors typically account for 50-60% of most developed country’s GDP, and almost every country was still experiencing expansion in services spending. This seems to be a global phenomenon that services and experiential spending continues to grow while product spending remains sluggish.

Dr. Kuehl also talked about oil and gasoline – now an implied draw through Q1 2025. He says the new forecast shows a net draw on inventories through Q1 of 2025 before returning to a neutral position. The EIA has adjusted its forecast for oil downward (prior to events in the Middle East and hurricane activity in the Atlantic). Gasoline and diesel prices are also remaining stable and relatively unchanged.

To get a copy of Dr. Kuehl's NETWORK2024 slides, contact Bri Baresel at bbaresel@asa.net.