Washington Weekly - April 27

This Week:

The House and Senate are in session.

Federal:

Debt Limit/Budget: Over the weekend, House Republicans released their debt limit increase plan that would allow a $1.5 trillion increase in the debt ceiling, with annual 1% increases over the next ten years.   This is tied to a budget that will revert to FY2022 funding levels.  While no topline as of this writing have been assigned to appropriators, both chambers have been moving ahead in putting together bills.   Also, there has been an increase in earmarks, which could complicate budget activity.  Days after the House Republican plan was made public, the White House indicated that President Biden would veto the legislation, should it make it to his desk.  This may be premature, because as of Tuesday, it did not appear that Speaker McCarthy had the votes to get the measure through the House. 

Spending:  The House Republican plan relies on rolling back much of the increased spending included in last year’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) to shave $130 billion in outlays.  This includes cutting the additional $80 billion in IRS funding, taking back unused COVID funding, increased work requirements for Medicaid recipients, as well as for those that participate in the Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program (SNAP, formerly known as ‘food stamps’).  In addition, many of the clean energy tax credits would also be eliminated, as well as those for energy efficient homes, and would modify those for carbon sequestration and EVs. 

Taxes: With many provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Job Act (TCJA) sunsetting soon, a tax package at the end of the year could appear to protect many of those measures that would keep corporate tax rates stable, protect deductions, and keep the status quo.  Stay tuned. 

Permitting:  The ongoing battle over federal permitting rules, championed by Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), could appear again this summer.  While they have failed to go anywhere over the last year, a boost from a Republican-controlled House could change the dynamic with rising energy prices ahead of the election year in 2024.  If they fail to pass by Labor Day, the likelihood of it happening is drastically reduced.  More to come.

Politics:

Biden 2024: After the announcements of former President Donald Trump; former Gov. and UN Amb. Nikki Haley; South Carolina Senator Tim Scott; former Gov. Asa Hutchinson, and tech CEO Vivek Ramaswamy on the Republican side, President Biden made his 2024 re-election campaign official this week.  While many see this as a rematch of the 2020 campaign between Presidents Biden and Trump, there is a long way to go before primary season -with money to be raised, staffs to be hired, and ground games to be implemented.  Should make for some great political theater.

President Biden Job Approval (RCP Average): 43% Approve – 54% Disapprove. The House currently has a composition of 222 Republicans to 213 Democrats. The Senate is comprised of 51 Democrats and 49 Republicans.