Washington Weekly - August 31

This Week:

The Senate returns on September 5^th and the House returns on September 12^th. 

Federal:

Quiet Before the Storm: As mentioned previously, Congress is heading towards a fiscal year deadline, leaving just 32 days left (at this writing) to pass a budget or a continuing resolution (CR) before September 30^th. Last week, House Freedom Caucus members issued their requirements to get a CR passed. Since then, Senate Republicans have indicated that they would not support anything at this time that would result in a government shutdown.

What’s at Stake: Historically, government shutdowns have not been beneficial to those seen as causing them, especially when going into an election cycle.  With control of the Senate up for grabs in 2024, Senate Republicans have been reluctant to support some of the issues coming out of the House that would be seen as controversial in the Senate or even by the White House.  While they support many House GOP initiatives like keeping budget topline spending thresholds down, they have been more resistant to policies that have little likelihood of passing the Democratic-majority Senate.  A flurry of activity should occur in the first two weeks, after both chambers return from recess at the beginning of September. 

Department of Energy:                                                                                     

Inflation Reduction Act Rebates:  The Department of Energy has begun accepting state applications for funding of rebate programs included in last year’s Inflation Reduction Act, almost a year after it was signed into law.  The funding will be split into two parts – the home efficiency rebate program and the residential electrification program – and states will have to apply for each, submitting a plan for DOE review on how they will implement the programs in their respective states.  Keep in mind that not all states will participate (Gov. Ron DeSantis has already announced that Florida will not be involved).  The DOE announcement can be found here.

Water Heater NOPR: Department of Energy issued a Notice of Proposed Rule (NOPR) on Consumer Water Heaters – news release can be found here. ASA is working with its industry partners to decipher the almost 1,700 pages of the proposed rule that would take effect on January 1, 2029.  If you have any questions or comments, please contact ASA VP of Advocacy at srossi@asa.net.    

Politics:
 

2024: Last week, ASA VP of Advocacy Steve Rossi, was at the first 2024 Presidential debate held in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.  While GOP frontrunner Donald Trump opted not to attend, the other Republican candidates took the opportunity to engage a spirited debate over the issues that will shape the 2024 Election Cycle.

House:  

A few more House races of interest in 2024 –

California’s 9^th District: House Republicans scored a key recruit in this race, as Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln will challenge Democratic Rep. Josh Harder for the seat.  Lincoln, a former Marine who also served on Marine One during the Bush 43 Administration, has been a rising star on the California Republican political scene.  Prior to 2023, the district had been represented by longtime Democratic Rep. Jerry McNerny who opted to retire.  Republicans are excited because they have the mayor of the largest population center in the district running and since the area has been trending more Republican over the last couple of cycles: with voters supporting the recall of Gov. Gavin Newsom by 10 points, Republican gubernatorial candidate Brian Dahle winning the district by 5 points in 2022, and in the same election, Democratic Sen. Alex Padilla barely won the district by 1.8%.  It will make for an interesting contest, as every seat in the House will be of value to both parties.

Florida’s 9^th District: With the recent successes of the Republican Party in Florida, House Republicans are looking to capitalize and challenge Democratic incumbents.  FL-9 has been represented by Democratic Congressman Darren Soto since 2017, after then-Democratic Rep. Alan Grayson retired and ran unsuccessfully for the U.S. Senate.  This Orlando-area district has not changed much from the last Congressional map and went for President Biden over then-President Trump, 53-46, in 2020.  However, since Gov. Ron DeSantis won the district 50-49, Republicans think they have their candidate in former state representative John Quinones.  Most political pundits see this as a likely Democratic district.  One to watch.

Connecticut’s 5^th District: Western Connecticut hasn’t been represented by a Republican in Congress since former Rep. Nancy Johnson lost re-election to now-Sen. Chris Murphy in 2006.  Current Democratic Rep. Jahana Hayes held the seat after her predecessor, then-Rep. Elizabeth Esty announced she would not run for re-election due to several scandals.  Congresswoman Hayes was re-elected by large margins until 2022, when she faced former GOP State Sen. George Logan, whom she defeated by less than 1%.  Logan is back for a re-match in what should be one of the few competitive seats in New England.

President Biden Job Approval (RCP Average): 42% Approve – 53% Disapprove.

Generic Congressional Ballot (RCP Average): Democrats +0.3%. The House currently has a composition of 222 Republicans to 212 Democrats. The Senate is comprised of 51 Democrats and 49 Republicans. Special Elections: Democratic: (RI-1 Primary: 9/5/2023; General: 11/7/2023).  Republican: (UT-2 Primary: 9/5/2023; General: 11/21/2023). Rep. Chris Stewart (UT-2) will resign on September 15, 2023.