Washington Weekly - December 13, 2023

This Week:

The House and Senate are in session. 

Congress:

A one seat majority: After the expulsion of former Rep. George Santos (R-NY), and the announcement by former Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) that he will leave Congress by the end of the month, eyes have now turned to Rep. Bill Johnson (R-OH), who is expected to resign his seat early next year to become the next president of Youngstown State University. 

This would leave Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), no relation, with a very tenuous one-seat majority in the House, until special elections are held for those districts. If tensions in the House were not high enough, this puts the Speaker in a precarious position with funding running out for four areas of government (military, construction/VA, transportation/HUD, energy & water) on Jan. 19 and the rest on Feb. 2. Should there be any additional vacancies or absences, this could prove to be a very difficult start to the year in Congress. Currently, seven out of 12 appropriations bills have been passed by the House, with three passed in the Senate. Disagreement remains between appropriators in both chambers on funding levels, as well as their respective priorities.

This week: The big news on Capitol Hill this week is trying to get a supplemental aid bill for Israel, Ukraine, Taiwan and the southern border done before Congress adjourns for recess until next year. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is in Washington this week to meet with Congressional leadership to lobby for additional military and economic aid as Ukraine faces its most dire aid prospects since the war began. Senate Republicans have stated that there is not enough time to run a bill before the end of the year and that no supplemental aid will be approved without the support of their Democratic colleagues for additional border funding. Negotiations are ongoing.

Joint-Employer Rule: ASA has been active in its opposition to the NLRB Joint-Employer Rule since it was issued earlier this year. On Tuesday, the House Committee and Education and Workforce approved a resolution that would overturn the rule under the Congressional Review Act. It will now advance in the House, ahead of the implementation of this regulation in February. 

Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act (WIOA): Also on Tuesday, the House Education and Workforce Committee voted to reauthorize WIOA. ASA recently met with committee staff to discuss the reauthorization that directs funds for actual job training, as well as strengthen job trainer eligibility and accountability. 

Politics: 

House fundraising: When Rep. Kevin McCarthy was voted out of the Speakership in early October, many political pundits and operatives worried that House Republicans would take a financial hit since the former Speaker was a prolific fundraiser. Those concerns appear to have gone unfounded with Speaker Johnson helping to raise $9 million in November, which according to the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), is an off-year record for the month. The NRCC currently has $41.4 million in the bank, while their counterparts, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), have $47 million on hand.

Retirements: The Congressional retirements continue. Those who are planning to exit elected office altogether:

Senate – Republicans: Sens. Mitt Romney (UT).  Democrats: Sens. Joe Manchin (WV), Laphonza Butler (CA), Debbie Stabenow (MI), Ben Cardin (MD), Tom Carper (DE).

House - Republicans:  Reps. Debbie Lesko (AZ-8), Ken Buck (CO-4), Victoria Spartz (IN-5), Patrick McHenry (NC-10), George Santos (NY-3), Bill Johnson (OH-6), Michael Burgess (TX-26), Brad Wenstrup (OH-2), and Kay Granger (TX-12). Democrats: Reps. Grace Napolitano (CA-31), Tony Cardenas (CA-29), Anna Eshoo (CA-16), John Sarbanes (MD-3), Dan Kildee (MI-8), Earl Blumenauer (OR-3), Jennifer Wexton (VA-10), and Derek Kilmer (WA-6). 

President Biden Job Approval (RCP Average): 40% Approve – 57% Disapprove.

Generic Congressional Ballot (RCP Average): Republicans +0.9%. The House currently has a composition of 221 Republicans to 213 Democrats. The Senate is comprised of 51 Democrats and 49 Republicans.