Washington Weekly - December 7, 2023

This Week:

The House and Senate are in Session. 

Congress:

Markups and Negotiations: Negotiations continue on border security, aid for Israel, Taiwan, and Ukraine (President Volodymyr Zelensky cancelled a virtual briefing for Senators on Tuesday), military promotions that have been held in the Senate, reauthorization of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA), and the reauthorization of the FAA.  

Tiebreaker:  This week, Vice President Kamala Harris broke the record for the most tie-breaking votes by casting her 32^nd, eclipsing the former record held by John C. Calhoun. The vote was to advance the nomination of Loren AliKhan to the United States District Court for the District of Columbia. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) joined Senate Republicans in opposing the nomination, setting up the record setting vote.

The Santos Finale and the Majority: Last week, the House of Representatives voted 311-114 to expel former Rep. George Santos (R-NY) from the chamber. He holds the distinction of being of one of only six members ever to be expelled, the first Republican, and the first not to be convicted of a crime before expulsion. His swing, Long Island district went for Joe Biden in 2020. A special election is expected to be held in mid-to-late February 2024, with Santos’ predecessor, former Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi, seeking his old seat. The expulsion came just days after the House had returned to full strength, with all 435 districts having representation after the election of Rep. Celeste Malloy (R-UT).  As a result of this expulsion, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) now has a slim, three-vote Republican majority in the House. This majority could become even more precarious with the rumored resignation of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) as soon as the end of the year.

Politics: 

Patrick McHenry: Former Speaker of the House Pro Tempore, Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-NC), announced that he will not seek re-election to his seat in 2024. Having first been elected to the House at the age of 29 and holding the title of youngest member of Congress for the next four years, Rep. McHenry initially had the reputation of being outspoken, while showing a preference for bow ties, serving as Republican Chief Deputy Whip under former speakers John Boehner and Paul Ryan. He later became a key member of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s leadership team, even though he did not have a caucus leadership title.  When the former Speaker was vacated from office, Rep. McHenry was appointed as part of a continuity of leadership plan and served as Speaker Pro Tempore for 22 days, until the election of current Speaker Mike Johnson. He currently serves as the Chair of the House Financial Services Committee, and his deep red North Carolina district will see several potential successors vie for the seat.

Retirements: The Congressional retirements continue. Those who are planning to exit elected office altogether:

Senate – Republicans: Sens. Mitt Romney (UT).  Democrats: Sens. Joe Manchin (WV), Laphonza Butler (CA), Debbie Stabenow (MI), Ben Cardin (MD), Tom Carper (DE).

House - Republicans:  Reps. Debbie Lesko (AZ-8), Ken Buck (CO-4), Victoria Spartz (IN-5), Patrick McHenry (NC-10), George Santos (NY-3), Bill Johnson (OH-6), Michael Burgess (TX-26), Brad Wenstrup (OH-2), and Kay Granger (TX-12). Democrats: Reps. Grace Napolitano (CA-31), Tony Cardenas (CA-29), Anna Eshoo (CA-16), John Sarbanes (MD-3), Dan Kildee (MI-8), Earl Blumenauer (OR-3), Jennifer Wexton (VA-10), and Derek Kilmer (WA-6). 

President Biden Job Approval (RCP Average): 40% Approve – 56% Disapprove.

Generic Congressional Ballot (RCP Average): Republicans +0.5%. The House currently has a composition of 221 Republicans to 213 Democrats. The Senate is comprised of 51 Democrats and 49 Republicans.