Washington Weekly - January 3, 2024

This Week:

The House and Senate will return for business next week.
 

Congress:
 

Happy New Year: Welcome to 2024, which will undoubtedly be one of the most unprecedented years in American politics.  Along with the usual presidential election cycle, voters will see whether a former president will be kept off the ballot in certain states, the results of the charges against him, if the current president can beat precedent with historically low approval numbers and win a second term in the face of still-high interest rates, ongoing inflationary pressures, and amidst global strife. 

On the legislative side, Congress returns to handle the budget that it was unable to finish last year (with the specter of a partial government shutdown just 10 days after returning), at the same time beginning the FY2025 budget process, assessing how to aid Israel, Ukraine, Taiwan, and the southern border, the likely House impeachment of the first cabinet official (DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas)  since the late 1800s, and several Members of Congress having to run under a different map than they did two years ago. Add in the slimmest majority for a House Speaker in history and there will be no shortage of political theater. 

The House majority: After the expulsion of former Rep. George Santos (R-NY) and the resignation of former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), Rep. Bill Johnson (R-OH) submitted his letter of resignation on Tuesday, effective Jan. 21, to become the next president of Youngstown State University. This will result in a 219-213 House Republican majority for the foreseeable future, creating a very tenuous position for House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA). This will mean that Republicans can only lose two of their own votes for a measure to pass. Should any absences or further departures by Republicans occur, it could throw the House into legislative turmoil. Rep. Brian Higgins (D-NY) is expected to resign from his seat sometime in February, affording Republicans some breathing room, as every vote counts.

The budget: Over the recess, talks were ongoing to solve the current budget stalemate, with some agreements on toplines and the discussions characterized as “positive.” When the House and Senate return next week, it will leave only a handful of legislative days to get the budget bills passed (the Speaker is opposed to an omnibus that would wrap them all up into one bill), sent to the Senate, and signed by the president. At the same time, appropriators will be working concurrently on FY2025 budget priorities, a unique situation — even for Congress. 

Politics: 
Facing a rematch against her 2022 opponent that was decided by just 556 votes, Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO), has decided to switch districts. She will run to succeed retiring Rep. Ken Buck (R-CO) in Colorado’s 4^th Congressional District. Her 2022 opponent, Adam Frisch, has raised more than $7 million for his campaign so far to just over $2 million for Rep. Boebert. This also represents a change in geography, with her current district, CO-3, making up the western part of the state and her new district located in eastern Colorado.  Why? While her current district tilts Republican (R+7), her new district is significantly more Republican (R+13), with no Democratic House candidate in CO-4 receiving more than 40% of the vote over the last decade.
 

Retirements: The Congressional retirements continue. Those who are planning to exit elected office altogether: Senate – Republicans: Sens. Mitt Romney (UT).  Democrats: Sens. Joe Manchin (WV), Laphonza Butler (CA), Debbie Stabenow (MI), Ben Cardin (MD), Tom Carper (DE).
 

House - Republicans:  Reps. Debbie Lesko (AZ-8), Ken Buck (CO-4), Drew Ferguson (GA-3), Victoria Spartz (IN-5), Patrick McHenry (NC-10), George Santos (NY-3), Bill Johnson (OH-6), Michael Burgess (TX-26), Brad Wenstrup (OH-2), and Kay Granger (TX-12). Democrats: Reps. Grace Napolitano (CA-31), Tony Cardenas (CA-29), Anna Eshoo (CA-16), John Sarbanes (MD-3), Dan Kildee (MI-8), Kathy Manning (NC-6), Wiley Nickel (NC-13), Earl Blumenauer (OR-3), Jennifer Wexton (VA-10), and Derek Kilmer (WA-6). 
 

President Biden Job Approval (RCP Average): 40% Approve – 56% Disapprove.
 

Generic Congressional Ballot (RCP Average): Republicans +0.5%. The House currently has a composition of 220 Republicans to 213 Democrats. The Senate is comprised of 51 Democrats and 49 Republicans.