Washington Weekly - July 27, 2022

Note:

If you, your families, or employees are planning to travel to Washington, DC this summer and would like to tour the U.S. Capitol, it is imperative that you contact your respective member of Congress well ahead of time.  Access to the Capitol is still largely restricted and only member offices can schedule tours for their constituents.  The White House has announced that it will be open for public tours from July 15^th, on a first come, first serve basis.  Appointments also need to be made through Congressional offices. To find your member of Congress, please click here. 

This Week:

• The House and Senate are in session. 

Congress:

All in the Numbers: Unfortunately, a small coronavirus outbreak has hit the Senate, that could hinder some legislative priorities in the coming days. 

• After Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) returned from quarantine, Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV), Tina Smith (D-MN), Tom Carper (D-DE) and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) announced they had tested positive. 
• With the extended recovery of Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT) due to surgery, the political calculus in the Senate has changed, with few legislative days left before the August recess. 
• Several votes were also pushed to Tuesday, after severe weather hampered the ability of several Senators to return to Washington for Monday evening votes. 
• With a 50-50 Senate and no proxy voting, the number of Senators on both sides of the aisle that can get to the floor for a vote has become exceptionally critical. 

Budget Reconciliation: The most obvious vote that will be affected by partisan balance in the Senate is budget reconciliation, since it only needs a simple majority to pass, not the 60 votes required for other legislation.

• Democrats met last week during their caucus lunch to decide which healthcare priorities to include, however, they did not come away with anything final. 
• Several of the proposed healthcare related positions have been submitted to the Senate Parliamentarian for review to see if they comply with the ‘Byrd Rule,’ which would block legislative provisions that significantly increase the federal deficit over a ten-year period.  Democrats are anxiously awaiting that decision, while Republicans have been active in making their case against them.  The healthcare provisions in the reconciliation package are rumored to be between $200-250 billion.
• Sen. Manchin has been generally opposed to any measures that will increase taxes amid runaway inflation and has asked colleagues to wait until July economic results are out.  In the meantime, Democratic colleagues have been trying to find an inflation number he would be comfortable with to support reconciliation.  So far, he has been keeping it close to the vest.  Stay tuned. 

CHiPs: The $280 billion bill passed its first hurdle on Tuesday morning, voting 64-32 to limit debate and move the bill to final passage.  The final vote is expected to occur before the end of the week.  This legislation would provide around $50 billion to the semiconductor industry to increase competitiveness with foreign chipmakers.  The legislation is anticipated to pass quickly, once received in the house.

Appropriations: The draft Senate appropriations bills are expected to be finished and released before recess, but it is becoming increasingly clear that the appropriations process will not be completed by the September 30^th deadline.  Therefore, a Continuing Resolution (CR) will be imminent, ensuring federal funding will continue uninterrupted until late November or early December. 

Politics:

Georgia on my Mind:  As many are aware, Georgia will be the epicenter for Republicans taking control of the Senate – or Democrats stopping them from doing so.  As voters begin to focus more on the fall, some interesting numbers have started to appear. 

• After being as much as ten points behind Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA), Georgia football great and Republican Senate Nominee Herschel Walker seems to have closed his previous deficit quickly and now within the margin of error, according to several polls (including an AARP Georgia survey) over the last two weeks. 
• Walker has taken several hits from his critics, including claiming to be a law enforcement officer, concealing several children born out of wedlock and questions about his mental health.  In addition, he has brought on an almost entirely new campaign staff. 
• In recent days, Sen. Warnock and his allies have called on Walker to debate (usually an unusual request from an incumbent) and he has so far refused, which could help Walker’s chances. 
• In addition, after defeating his Trump-endorsed opponent in the primary, Gov. Brian Kemp has taken roughly a 6-point lead over former Georgia House Minority Leader and Democratic Nominee Stacy Abrams.  Before the 2020 Election, Gov. Kemp was consistently ranked as one of the most popular governors in the country and may be reverting to his pre-pandemic form. 
• This could help improve Herschel Walker’s chances as Kemp and Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger would drive turnout for Republicans, strengthening Walker’s position at the top of the ballot. 

Bag of Tricks: Earlier this week, Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-IL) appeared on CNN and blasted the Democrats for backing Republican candidates who do not believe that Joe Biden won the 2020 Elections and are allegedly putting democracy in jeopardy as a result. 

• With 2022 being a first-term, midterm election for the President’s party - the wind is at the Republican Party’s back. 
• The DNC, DCCC and DSCC will likely use whatever strategies are available to mitigate losses and try to achieve some upsets.  The strategy of backing MAGA Republicans has been successful for them, helping GOP Gubernatorial candidates in Illinois, Maryland, and Pennsylvania defeat their establishment opponents, as well as several Congressional candidates, with the belief they would be easier for Democrats to beat in November. 
• Following Rep. Kinzinger’s comments, several Democratic members publicly called out the DCCC for their tactics especially after spending over $500,000 to support the pro-Trump John Gibbs in the Republican primary against moderate, incumbent Michigan Rep. Peter Meijer (yes, same as the retail store). 
• “It’s very dangerous, I think, in this environment to be propping up candidates like that,” Rep. Jason Crow (D-CO) told Politico. “Of course, it could backfire. And that’s part of the reason why I don’t think it’s a good idea,” he added. “Not only do I think it sends the wrong message, but it’s substantively risky.”

Generic Congressional Ballot (RCP Average): Republicans +2.5

President Biden Job Approval (RCP Average): 37% Approve – 57% Disapprove

Retirement Tracker:  Senate: (1 D, 5 R); House: (33 D, 22 R). 

Special Elections: Republican-held: Minnesota’s 1^st (General: 08/09/2022), Alaska At-Large (08/16/2022), New York’s 23^rd (08/23/2022).  Democratic-held: New York’s 19^th (08/23/2022).

• The House now has composition of 220 Democrats to 211 Republicans (with 4 vacancies).  The Senate is comprised of 50 Democrats and 50 Republicans – with Democrats controlling the chamber as the Vice President also serves as the President of the Senate. 

State Legislation Tracking

• Please visit our web-based state legislative tracker here.