Washington Weekly - November 29, 2023

This Week:

The House and Senate are in Session. 

Congress:

Budget:  While a “two-step” continuing resolution (CR) was passed before the Thanksgiving break to avert a government shutdown, Congress essentially kicked the legislative can down the road. This will set up a difficult situation on Jan. 19 and again on Feb. 2, when either a budget or another continuing resolution will need to be passed (halfway through FY2024) to fund the government through the end of September 2024. 

Funding: Some progress is being made on appropriations legislation, though Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has made it clear he will not bring another “clean” CR to the floor, increasing the chances of a shutdown. That is unless House and Senate leadership come to some sort of agreement on Republican demands for spending cuts, while Democrats can protect Biden administration priorities. 

Everything else: As budget deliberations continue into calendar year 2024, other must-pass legislation will have to be negotiated and brought to the floors of both chambers. This includes border security, aid for Israel, Taiwan and Ukraine, military promotions that have been held in the Senate, reauthorization of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA), along with the reauthorization of the FAA.  

The Santos Saga: After announcing he would not seek re-election following a scathing House Ethics report, but instead finishing out his current term, the House will take up a resolution to expel Rep. George Santos (R-NY). The resolution introduced by Rep. Robert Garcia (D-CA) is privileged, meaning that must be brought to the floor within two legislative days unless another resolution is called. House Ethics Committee Chair Michael Guest (R-MS) has already introduced a similar measure. No matter which resolution is called forward, it could mean that Rep. Santos will be the first member of the House to be expelled from the chamber since former Rep. James Traficant (D-OH) in 2002, after the latter’s conviction on 10 felony counts in a federal trial. This will cause a special election to be called in New York’s 3^rd Congressional District, where Santos’ predecessor, former Democratic Congressman Tom Suozzi, has launched a campaign for the seat.

Politics: 

Utah: Last Tuesday, the final vacancy in the House was filled with a special election held in Utah’s 4^th Congressional District. Former GOP Rep. Chris Stewart resigned in September due to family health issues. His former legal counsel, now-Rep. Celeste Malloy, won his seat and was sworn in on Tuesday night. As a result, the House is back to a 222 Republican – 213 Democratic membership, with all 435 seats being represented. 

Retirements: The Congressional retirements keep on coming. Those who are planning to exit elected office altogether:

Senate – Republicans: Sens. Mitt Romney (UT).  Democrats: Sens. Joe Manchin (WV), Laphonza Butler (CA), Debbie Stabenow (MI), Ben Cardin (MD), Tom Carper (DE).

House - Republicans:  Reps. Debbie Lesko (AZ-8), Ken Buck (CO-4), Victoria Spartz (IN-5), George Santos (NY-3), Bill Johnson (OH-6), Michael Burgess (TX-26), Brad Wenstrup (OH-2), and Kay Granger (TX-12). Democrats: Reps. Grace Napolitano (CA-31), Tony Cardenas (CA-29), Anna Eshoo (CA-16), John Sarbanes (MD-3), Dan Kildee (MI-8), Earl Blumenauer (OR-3), Jennifer Wexton (VA-10), and Derek Kilmer (WA-6). 

President Biden Job Approval (RCP Average): 41% Approve – 55% Disapprove.

Generic Congressional Ballot (RCP Average): Republicans +0.6%. The House currently has a composition of 222 Republicans to 213 Democrats. The Senate is comprised of 51 Democrats and 49 Republicans.