Washington Weekly - October 19, 2023

This Week:

The Senate is in session. The House is in and out of recess subject to the call of the Chair.

Federal:

Who Will Speak: At time of this writing on Wednesday, Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) failed a second time to ascend to the Speakership in the House, with a worse result than he had the day previously during his first vote (198-213-22), with an increased number of Republicans opposing him.  With no clear alternate as of midday on Wednesday, there are growing calls to empower Speaker Pro Tempore Patrick McHenry for a specified amount of time, likely until Nov. 17 when the current Continuing Resolution funding government expires. Rep. David Joyce (R-OH) has been leading a centrist coalition to do just that. There is an expectation that another vote could take place on Wednesday, but as of right now, it appears unlikely as Rep. Jordan is trending in the wrong direction. 

Congressional Action: While the palace intrigue surrounding the votes as to whom the next Speaker will be continues, both chambers of Congress are trying to do their work in anticipation of a leadership solution. In the Senate, most of the work has focused on assembling aid packages for Israel and Ukraine, along with nominations, and various committee hearings. In the House, the chamber continues to function at the committee level, however, many hearings were canceled this week due to the Speaker drama and availability needed for the floor vote. This continues to be uncharted territory as the House of Representatives has never gone without a Speaker of the House like this since the inception of the Republic. 

ASA Federal Action:

Water Heater NOPR: Recently, ASA filed comments with the Department of Energy, pertaining to its Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Consumer Water Heaters. This will be an ongoing process with a potential implementation date of Jan. 1, 2029. 

Update - DOL Overtime Rulemaking: ASA joined 100 other business organizations in asking the Department of Labor for additional time in responding to its NOPR for employee overtime.  DOL has refused the request. 

Politics: 

Top 5 in the Presidential Money Race (Q3 Results): 1. Donald Trump - $37,541,961; 2. Joe Biden: $32,180,366; 3. Tim Scott -$13,330,124; 4. Ron DeSantis $12,326,905 & 5. Nikki Haley - $11,551,652.

Arizona: The Grand Canyon state has become a new battleground state over the last two election cycles, after being reliably Republican since the early 1990s. Over the same period, Arizona went from having two Republican senators to two Democrats.  In 2024, the seat of former Democratic (now Independent) Sen. Kyrsten Sinema is up for re-election.  Sen. Sinema has still not indicated whether she will run for re-election, but this has not stopped opponents from stepping forward.  On the Democratic side, Rep. Ruben Gallego has all but secured his party’s nomination for the fall.  As for Republicans, Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb and 2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake have both announced their candidacies, with the latter courting the support of both former President Donald Trump and the National Republican Senatorial Committee. This is a unique race with an independent incumbent, along with two viable major party nominees vying for the seat. Polling has been scattered as to which party Sen. Sinema pulls votes from, but this will be the most expensive race in the state’s history. Stay tuned.

President Biden Job Approval (RCP Average): 41% Approve – 55% Disapprove.

Generic Congressional Ballot (RCP Average): Republicans 0.8%. The House currently has a composition of 221 Republicans to 212 Democrats (2 Vacancies). The Senate is comprised of 51 Democrats and 49 Republicans. Special Elections: Democratic: (RI-1 - General: 11/7/2023).  Republican: UT-2 - General: 11/21/2023. Rep. Chris Stewart (UT-2) resigned on September 15, 2023.